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Hillin Qurrotu A'yun
Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Brawijaya, Malang
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Beyond monetary policy: how social security and bank credit drive money supply in Indonesia Hillin Qurrotu A'yun; Shofwan Shofwan
Manajemen dan Bisnis Vol 25, No 3 (2026): November 2026 (Online First)
Publisher : Department of Management - Faculty of Business and Economics. Universitas Surabaya.

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24123/mabis.v25i3.1132

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of broad money supply (M2) in Indonesia, focusing on fiscal policy, banking intermediation, non-cash payment instruments, and monetary policy. Monthly data from January 2016 to December 2024 are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine short- and long-run relationships. The results show that credit disbursement, third-party funds, and social security spending have positive and statistically significant effects on M2 in the long run. In contrast, village funds, debit/ATM cards, credit cards, and the reserve requirement have no significant effects in either the short or long run. The error correction term of −1.422 indicates rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, while the model explains 92.7% of M2 variation (R² = 0.927). This study contributes empirical evidence on the role of social security in M2 dynamics by integrating fiscal, banking, payment, and monetary variables within a single ARDL framework. The findings highlight the importance of banking intermediation and targeted fiscal transfers in shaping long-run liquidity and underscore the need for policy coordination among the government, Bank Indonesia, and the Financial Services Authority (OJK).
Co-Authors Shofwan Shofwan