<![CDATA[Background: Papua’s mangroves face severe anthropogenic pressures. While remote sensing provides planetary-scale data, a critical gap persists in contextualizing spatial models within localized indigenous socio-cultural realities. Objectives: This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of mangrove deforestation and restoration across Papua (2001–2024) to quantify ecological trajectories, identify structural breakpoints, and evaluate community-driven conservation efficacy. Methods: Operating within a digital laboratory environment, Google Earth Engine (GEE) was utilized for spatial data extraction. Subsequently, segmented time-series modeling (Pettitt’s and Mann-Kendall tests) was executed in R to evaluate long-term ecological shifts. Results: Central and West Papua accounted for 68.8% of the 10,704.59 hectares lost. A 2011 structural breakpoint delineated rapid degradation escalation (2001–2016) at +34.11 ha/year (p<0.01). Conversely, the post-2017 phase demonstrated a robust recovery, decelerating degradation by 146.97 ha/year (p<0.01). This reversal strongly correlates with revitalized indigenous interventions, notably the customary Sasi institution. Conclusion: Integrating digital geospatial governance with local ecological knowledge effectively reverses severe environmental degradation. Legally codifying customary practices and utilizing remote sensing to strictly support indigenous conservation is imperative for advancing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs 13, 14, and 15).]]>
