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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Applied Accounting and Finance
Rina Melati
STIE Pancasetia Banjarmasin
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Manufaktur Yang Terdaftar Pada Index LQ45 Bursa Efek Indonesia Rina Melati; Hasdi Suryadi
Indonesian Journal of Applied Accounting and Finance Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): June
Publisher : P3M Politeknik Negeri Banjarmasin

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31961/ijaaf.v6i1.15745

Abstract

Macroeconomic conditions constitute an important source of systematic risk in capital markets because changes in economic indicators may alter corporate cash flows, production costs, discount rates, and investor expectations. This study examines the effects of inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate on the stock returns of manufacturing companies included in the LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2022–2024. The study employs a quantitative explanatory design using secondary data derived from the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Bank Indonesia and analyzes the relationship using multiple linear regression. The empirical results indicate that inflation has a positive and significant effect on stock returns, whereas the rupiah exchange rate has a negative and significant effect. In contrast, interest rates do not demonstrate a statistically significant effect on stock returns. Inflation exhibits the strongest standardized effect among the estimated variables. The findings suggest that investor responses to macroeconomic information are heterogeneous and that inflation and exchange-rate dynamics provide more relevant information for explaining stock-return movements during the post-pandemic recovery period. The study contributes evidence from Indonesian manufacturing firms with relatively high market liquidity and emphasizes the importance of contextual economic conditions when interpreting the relationship between macroeconomic variables and investment performance. Practically, investors should complement firm-specific analysis with systematic monitoring of macroeconomic indicators, while corporate managers should strengthen financial risk management, particularly with respect to inflationary pressures and foreign-exchange exposure
Co-Authors Suryadi, Hasdi