This study analyzes the effect of profitability and exchange rate on companies’ transfer pricing decisions in basic materials sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2020–2024 period. A quantitative approach was employed using secondary data obtained from the companies’ annual financial reports. The sample consisted of 22 companies with 97 observations selected through purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using panel data regression with STATA 17 software. The findings indicate that profitability has a positive but insignificant effect on transfer pricing decisions, suggesting that internal earnings performance does not significantly influence companies in determining transfer pricing practices. In contrast, the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on transfer pricing, indicating that fluctuations in currency values play an important role in shaping corporate decisions related to transfer pricing. These results imply that external macroeconomic conditions, particularly exchange rate movements, are more influential than internal financial performance in determining transfer pricing strategies among basic materials companies in Indonesia. The study provides empirical evidence regarding the determinants of transfer pricing decisions and contributes to the understanding of how external economic factors influence corporate tax-related strategies in emerging markets. The findings may also serve as a reference for policymakers, regulators, and corporate managers in formulating policies related to transfer pricing practices.