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Analisis Komparatif Dan Validasi Metode Time Series Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Sepeda Motor Di Indonesia Memakai Pendekatan Out-Of-Sample Zaenal Abidin; Muhammad Ridho Hermawan; Muh Kharis Tsani Wildan At Thoyalisy; Muhamad Ardyansah; Egiens All Fathir; Yudi Prastyo
Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro dan Informatika Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro dan Informatika
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jtmei.v5i2.6064

Abstract

Demand forecasting is an important factor to support strategic decision-making, especially in industries with high levels of fluctuation such as motorcycle sales in Indonesia. This study aims to conduct an analysis, compare, and validate the performance of time series methods, namely Moving Average (MA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), and Exponential Smoothing (ES), to forecast motorcycle sales. The data used are monthly sales data for the 2022–2024 period obtained from the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI). Evaluation was carried out using Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) with a uniform evaluation period to ensure an objective comparison. The results of the study show that the Weighted Moving Average (WMA) method has the best accuracy on historical data with a MAPE value of 14.88%. Next, validation was carried out using actual data from 2025 with an out-of-sample forecasting approach without model updates. The validation results showed that the Exponential Smoothing (ES) method had the best performance with a MAPE value of 8.81%, indicating better model generalization ability for predicting future data. This study showed that the method with the best accuracy on historical data does not always provide the best performance on future data. Therefore, selecting a forecasting method needs to consider a balance between accuracy and model stability. The results of this study are intended to serve as a reference for selecting a forecasting method suitable for fluctuating data conditions.
Model Evaluasi Kelayakan Umkm Sektor Food and Beverage Berbasis Pendekatan Finansial dan Integrasi Ahp–Topsis Zaenal Abidin
Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro dan Informatika Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): Jurnal Teknik Mesin, Industri, Elektro dan Informatika
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jtmei.v5i2.6123

Abstract

The rapid expansion of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) within the food and beverage (F&B) sector has intensified business competition, encouraging entrepreneurs to adopt evaluation mechanisms capable of portraying business feasibility in a more measurable manner. This study concentrated on constructing a business feasibility evaluation model through the combination of financial assessment and multi-criteria decision-making methods so that business selection would not merely emphasize profitability, but would also accommodate market opportunity, investment requirements, operational efficiency, and business risk simultaneously. Data processing involved Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period, and Break Even Point (BEP). Criterion weighting was carried out using the Analytical Hierarchy Process approach, while alternative ranking was performed through the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution framework. The analyzed business alternatives consisted of bottled coffee, mentai dimsum, and rice bowl enterprises, with data assembled from observations of comparable MSMEs and operational cost estimations adjusted to Indonesian MSME conditions in 2026. The analytical outcomes demonstrated that all alternatives satisfied financial feasibility criteria. Bottled coffee generated an NPV of IDR 178,466,000 with an estimated IRR of 112%, a Payback Period of 1.95 months, a sales BEP value of IDR 10,134,000, and a minimum sales target of approximately 563 product units. Mentai dimsum recorded an NPV of IDR 128,534,000 with an IRR of 86%, while the rice bowl alternative produced an NPV of IDR 123,359,000 alongside an IRR of 79%. TOPSIS ranking results positioned bottled coffee as the highest-ranked alternative with a preference score of 0.91, followed by mentai dimsum at 0.69 and rice bowl at 0.57. The findings indicate that integrating financial assessment and multi-criteria methods can provide a more comprehensive business evaluation framework than relying solely on conventional financial analysis. The proposed model may contribute as a more adaptive, rational, and measurable reference for MSME investment decision-making.