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All Journal Harmoni Economics: International Journal of Economics and Accounting
Tifani Napitupulu
Universitas Sumatera Utara

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“Effects of Government Size, Capital Expenditure, and Transfer Funds on Financial Performance: Economic Growth Moderation” Tifani Napitupulu; Rina Br Bukit; Khaira Amalia Fachrudin
Harmoni Economics: International Journal of Economics and Accounting Vol. 3 No. 3 (2026): August: Harmoni Economics: International Journal of Economics and Accounting
Publisher : International Forum of Researchers and Lecturers

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70062/harmonieconomics.v3i3.487

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the influence of government size, capital expenditure, and balancing funds on the financial performance of provincial governments in Indonesia, with economic growth as a moderating variable. The study employed a quantitative approach with secondary data obtained from the Regional Government Financial Report (LKPD), the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance (DJPK), and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The study sample consisted of 26 provincial governments in Indonesia during the 2021–2024 period, resulting in 104 observations. The analytical method used was panel data regression with a Random Effects Model (REM) and Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) approach. The results showed that government size had a negative but insignificant effect on financial performance with a coefficient of -393.6595 and a probability of 0.5738. Capital expenditure had a positive and significant effect on financial performance with a coefficient of 90.07727 and a probability of 0.0033, while balancing funds had a negative and significant effect with a coefficient of -50.91438 and a probability of 0.0158. Moderation tests indicate that economic growth is unable to moderate the effect of government size on financial performance with a probability of 0.5020, and it is unable to moderate the effect of balancing funds on financial performance with a probability of 0.0525. However, economic growth is able to strengthen the effect of capital expenditure on financial performance with an interaction coefficient of 16.58822 and a probability of 0.0193.
Co-Authors Khaira Amalia Fachrudin Rina Br. Bukit