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All Journal Tsaqofah: Jurnal Penelitian Guru Indonesia Asian Journal of Early Childhood and Elementary Education ALSYSTECH Journal of Education Technology International Journal of Education, Culture, and Society Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics International Journal of Education, Management, and Technology
Aniket Sahani
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Computer Science & IT Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Engineering Environmental Science Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Materials Science & Nanotechnology Mathematics Mechanical Engineering Social Sciences Other

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Regional and Gender Disparities in Higher Education in Nepal: A Quantitative Case Study MD Faijan Raja; Suresh Kumar Sahani; Aniket Sahani; Bharat Kumar Sah
ALSYSTECH Journal of Education Technology Vol 4 No 3 (2026): ALSYSTECH Journal of Education Technology
Publisher : Lembaga Yasin AlSys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/alsystech.v4i3.12066

Abstract

National indicators of higher education participation can obscure substantial geographic and gender inequalities within education systems. This study quantifies provincial and gender-based disparities in Nepal’s higher education system using reproducible mathematical and statistical techniques applied to University Grants Commission Education Management Information System data and the 2021 national census. Regional disparities were assessed using access ratios based on location quotients, an enrollment–population Lorenz curve, the Gini coefficient, and the Index of Dissimilarity, while gender disparities were examined through the Gender Parity Index (GPI), progression patterns across educational levels, and discipline-specific representation. The findings show that students from Bagmati Province participate in higher education at approximately 2.2 times the rate predicted by the province’s population share. Madhesh Province, rather than Karnali Province, recorded the country’s lowest relative access ratio at 0.40, indicating participation 60% below proportional representation. The provincial Gini coefficient was 0.31, numerically close to Nepal’s income Gini coefficient of 0.33, while the Index of Dissimilarity indicated that approximately one quarter of enrollment would need to be redistributed statistically across provinces for enrollment shares to correspond with population shares. The Gini coefficient declined modestly from 0.35 in FY 2019/20 to 0.31 in FY 2021/22. Nationally, the tertiary GPI increased from 0.26 in 1983 to 1.30 in FY 2023/24, representing a shift from pronounced male advantage to female-majority enrollment. However, substantial pipeline attrition persisted: female representation declined from approximately 57% at enrollment to 41% at the master’s level, approximately 16% at the MPhil and PhD levels, and less than 8% among university faculty in the most recent available data. Female representation was also markedly lower in Engineering (24.4%) and Sanskrit studies (14.5%). These findings demonstrate that national gender parity coexists with vertical, disciplinary, and regional inequalities. The study provides a reproducible framework for diagnosing these disparities and identifies province-by-gender disaggregation as an essential data-transparency priority for evaluating compounded disadvantage and informing equitable higher education policy.
Enrollment, Graduation, and Dropout Trends in Nepalese Higher Education: A Mathematical and Statistical Analysis Aman Gupta; Suresh Kumar Sahani; Aniket Sahani
International Journal of Education, Culture, and Society Vol 4 No 3 (2026): International Journal of Education, Culture, and Society
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ijecs.v4i3.12068

Abstract

Nepalese higher education has experienced substantial enrollment expansion, yet the extent to which this growth has translated into graduate output and timely completion remains unclear. This study examines trends in student enrollment, graduate output, and non-completion in Nepalese higher education using a quantitative secondary-data design. The principal national series was drawn from University Grants Commission higher-education management information reports and supplemented by evidence from the Ministry of Finance Economic Survey, National Statistics Office, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and recent peer-reviewed Nepalese studies. Data were analyzed using statistical trend analysis, percentage-change analysis, moving comparisons, ratio analysis, correlation, and a simple least-squares trend model. Between 2016/17 and 2023/24, higher-education enrollment increased from 371,184 to 633,053 students, representing approximately 70.55% growth, while female enrollment rose from 195,133 to 358,140, increasing the female share from 52.57% to 56.57%. Graduate output was substantially more volatile, declining from 90,922 in 2016/17 to 37,619 in 2020/21 before recovering to 97,564 in 2023/24. Because annual national totals do not follow the same students from entry to completion, the study distinguishes the descriptive graduate-to-enrollment ratio from a true cohort graduation rate. The findings indicate that expanded access has not translated proportionately into timely completion, with persistence shaped by the COVID-19 shock, academic calendar delays, uneven institutional quality, migration for study and employment, financial pressures, weak academic integration, and limited labor-market alignment. The study concludes that the central policy challenge has shifted from expanding enrollment alone to converting participation into timely, successful, and relevant graduation. It contributes by providing an integrated national-level assessment of enrollment and completion dynamics and highlights the need for student-level longitudinal data systems, early-warning retention mechanisms, stronger academic advising, flexible financing, curriculum reform, and differentiated support for vulnerable programs and campuses.
A Statistical and Mathematical Assessment of Higher Education Quality in Nepal Partiva Kumari Sahani; Suresh Kumar Sahani; Aniket Sahani
Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Vol 4 No 3 (2026): Mikailalsys Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/mjms.v4i3.12123

Abstract

Higher education is central to the development of skilled human capital in Nepal; however, despite substantial expansion in universities, campuses, and student enrolment, persistent concerns remain regarding institutional quality, resource adequacy, research performance, and equity across regions. This study aims to assess the quality of higher education in Nepal through a statistical and mathematical framework applied to a purposively selected set of constituent, affiliated, and community campuses representing three university systems. A composite Higher Education Quality Index (HEQI) was constructed from five weighted sub-indices: Student–Faculty Ratio, Physical and Pedagogical Resources, Quality Assurance and Accreditation Status, Gross Enrolment and Retention, and Research and Publication Intensity, using min–max normalisation and expert-elicited weighting. Primary perception data were collected through a 32-item Likert-scale instrument adapted from the SERVQUAL and HEdPERF service-quality frameworks, tested for internal consistency using Cronbach’s alpha, and analyzed using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation, one-way analysis of variance, chi-square tests of independence, and multiple linear regression. Secondary data on enrolment, financing, and staffing from the University Grants Commission’s Education Management Information System reports for 2013/14–2023/24 were used to contextualize and triangulate the primary findings. The regression results indicate that faculty qualification and research intensity are the strongest statistically significant predictors of perceived institutional quality, followed by physical infrastructure, whereas enrolment growth shows a negligible and, in some model specifications, negative association with quality after controlling for resource availability. The HEQI further reveals substantial inter-institutional and inter-provincial disparities, with older constituent campuses in Bagmati Province scoring markedly higher than community campuses in Karnali and Sudurpashchim Provinces. The study concludes that improving higher-education quality in Nepal requires resource-allocation formulas and accreditation incentives linked to measurable and weighted performance indicators rather than enrolment size alone. The proposed HEQI contributes a replicable quantitative framework that can support the University Grants Commission and universities in continuous institutional quality assessment, monitoring, and policy-oriented resource allocation.
Mathematical Analysis of Government Expenditure, Enrollment, and Educational Outcomes Aman Gupta; Suresh Kumar Sahani; Aniket Sahani
TSAQOFAH Vol 6 No 6 (2026): TSAQOFAH: Jurnal Penelitian Guru Indonesia
Publisher : Lembaga Yasin AlSys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/tsaqofah.v6i6.12122

Abstract

The rapid expansion of higher education in Nepal has increased pressure on public financing, institutional capacity, and the effective conversion of educational expenditure into measurable outcomes. This study examines higher-education financing in Nepal through a quantitative framework linking public expenditure, student enrollment, institutional capacity, and educational outcomes. Using secondary data from the University Grants Commission (UGC), Government of Nepal economic surveys, UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), and World Bank analytical documents, the study employed descriptive analysis, growth-rate analysis, ratio measures, elasticity measures, and association analysis. UGC data show that higher-education enrollment increased from 371,184 students in 2016/17 to 633,053 in 2023/24, while public financing allocated to universities and boards increased from NPR 9.30 billion in 2017/18 to NPR 17.457 billion in 2023/24. Graduate output increased from 90,922 in 2016/17 to 97,564 in 2023/24, although a pronounced temporary decline occurred during the COVID-19 period. The findings indicate that although higher-education financing increased substantially in nominal terms, additional expenditure was not proportionately associated with improvements in educational outcomes. Enrollment expansion, institutional concentration, teacher availability, program composition, delayed completion, and expenditure utilization jointly shaped the observed patterns. Because national financial and educational series are not fully synchronized across fiscal and academic years, the identified associations are interpreted descriptively rather than causally. The study concludes that financing reform should move beyond input-oriented allocation toward transparent, formula-based, and performance-sensitive mechanisms. The findings contribute to understanding the relationship between financing expansion and higher-education outcomes in Nepal and highlight the need for stronger investment in research, quality assurance, student completion, digital infrastructure, equitable regional access, and harmonized national data systems to support future econometric analysis.
Higher Education Financing in Nepal: A Mathematical Analysis of Government Expenditure, Enrollment, and Educational Outcomes MD Faijan Raja; Suresh Kumar Sahani; Aniket Sahani
International Journal of Education, Management, and Technology Vol 4 No 3 (2026): International Journal of Education, Management, and Technology
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ijemt.v4i3.12067

Abstract

Nepal’s higher education system has expanded substantially over the past decade, yet whether increased public financing has generated commensurate improvements in access and educational outcomes remains unclear. This study assesses the relationship among government expenditure, student enrollment, and institutional outcomes in Nepalese higher education. It applies growth-rate, expenditure-elasticity, dispersion, and ratio-based analyses to publicly available data from government sources, the University Grants Commission, the World Bank, and UNESCO. Enrollment increased by approximately 71%, from about 371,000 students in fiscal year (FY) 2016/17 to 633,053 in FY 2023/24, while nominal public financing for higher education institutions rose from NPR 9.3 billion in FY 2017/18 to NPR 17.5 billion in FY 2023/24. The estimated expenditure elasticity of enrollment ranges from 0.71 to 0.80, indicating that financing grew faster than enrollment and suggesting rising unit costs rather than proportional access expansion. Despite higher nominal expenditure, education spending declined from 4.77% to 3.69% of gross domestic product following its 2017 peak, a reduction of approximately 23%, and from 25.5% to 14.1% of total government expenditure since 2006, a decline of nearly 45%. Pass rates across constituent universities display substantial dispersion, with a coefficient of variation of approximately 31%; Tribhuvan University, the largest and most heavily subsidized institution, records the lowest completion outcomes, a pattern consistent with congestion associated with adverse student–faculty ratios. Moreover, annual household expenditure on overseas education, estimated at NPR 67 billion, is approximately 3.8 times the state’s expenditure on the entire domestic higher education system, indicating substantial private substitution toward foreign education. These findings reveal a divergence among nominal financing growth, budgetary prioritization, institutional performance, and public confidence in domestic higher education. The study contributes a quantitative framework for evaluating financing efficiency and identifies policy priorities concerning resource allocation, institutional capacity, and educational quality, while proposing a formal regression specification for future panel-data analysis when more granular annual data become available.
Higher Education Financing in Nepal: Mathematical Analysis of Government Expenditure, Enrollment, and Educational Outcomes Aman Gupta; Suresh Kumar Sahani; Aniket Sahani
Asian Journal of Early Childhood and Elementary Education Vol 4 No 5 (2026): Asian Journal of Early Childhood and Elementary Education
Publisher : Darul Yasin Al Sys

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58578/ajecee.v4i5.12065

Abstract

Rising enrollment and public expenditure in Nepalese higher education have intensified the need to assess whether financing expansion corresponds with institutional capacity and educational outcomes. This study examines the relationships among public expenditure, student enrollment, institutional capacity, and educational outcomes in Nepal. It employs a quantitative framework based on secondary data from the University Grants Commission, Government of Nepal economic surveys, UNESCO Institute for Statistics, and World Bank analytical documents. The data were analysed using descriptive statistics, growth rates, ratios, elasticity measures, and measures of association. University Grants Commission data show that higher education enrollment increased from 371,184 students in 2016/17 to 633,053 in 2023/24, while public financing for universities and boards rose from NPR 9.30 billion in 2017/18 to NPR 17.457 billion in 2023/24. Graduate output increased more modestly, from 90,922 to 97,564, with a pronounced temporary decline during the COVID-19 period. Although financing grew substantially in nominal terms, additional expenditure was not proportionately associated with improved educational outcomes. The observed patterns were also shaped by enrollment expansion, institutional concentration, teacher availability, programme composition, delayed completion, and expenditure utilisation. These findings indicate that financing reform should move beyond input-based allocation toward transparent, formula-based, and performance-sensitive mechanisms that support research, quality assurance, programme completion, digital infrastructure, and equitable regional access. Because the national datasets are not fully synchronised across fiscal and academic years, the identified relationships are interpreted as descriptive associations rather than causal effects. The study contributes an integrated quantitative assessment of Nepalese higher education financing and identifies data harmonisation as a prerequisite for more rigorous econometric analysis and evidence-based resource allocation.
Co-Authors Aman Gupta Bharat Kumar Sah MD Faijan Raja Partiva Kumari Sahani Suresh Kumar Sahani