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Sri Sulastri
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

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Forecasting The Value of Non-Oil and Gas Exports in Indonesia Using Triple Exponential Smoothing Sri Sulastri; Inas Wulan Ramadhani
SAINSMAT: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Vol. 14 No. 2 (2025): Volume 14 Nomor 2 (September 2025)
Publisher : Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/wr256011

Abstract

Forecasting the value of non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia is crucial, as these estimates provide an overview of potential foreign exchange earnings. Therefore, forecasting non-oil and gas exports is an important consideration for the government in formulating economic policy. This study aims to determine the value of non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia for 2025, which will form the basis for the government in formulating policy for the coming year. This study presents the optimal forecasting results using the Triple Exponential Smoothing method, with data consisting of non-oil and gas export figures in Indonesia from January 2020 to December 2024, obtained from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). The modelling results show that the best model is obtained with optimal parameter values of α = 0,3, β = 0,1, γ = 1, with a MAPE value of 3,770 and an RMSE value of 864,419. The forecast for non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in 2025 indicates seasonal fluctuations, with March expected to have the highest export value and May projected to be lower than the previous year.
Co-Authors Inas Wulan Ramadhani