<![CDATA[Municipal solid waste management contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, particularly methane from landfill and unmanaged disposal. This study integrates the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), First Order Decay (FOD), and system dynamics (SD) to identify historical drivers of MSW-related GHG emissions and evaluate long-term mitigation pathways in Tangerang Regency. LMDI decomposes emission changes into emission intensity, waste-treatment structure, waste-generation intensity, economic activity, and population effects, while FOD captures legacy methane from historical waste disposal. SD was then applied to simulate Business as Usual (BAU), Waste-to-Energy/WTE (S1), CH4 recovery (S2), enhanced recycling (S3), and lower population growth (S4) scenarios through 2050. GHG emissions increased from 541,155.24 tCO2e in 2019 to 648,953.80 tCO2e in 2024. The increase was driven primarily by emission intensity and economic activity, while lower waste-generation intensity and changes in waste-treatment structure partially offset the increase. By 2050, CH4 recovery (S2) yielded the largest reduction relative to BAU (47.02%), followed by recycling (S3) (9.71%), WTE (S1) (9.46%), and the lower-population-growth scenario (S4) (3.04%). These findings demonstrate that methane control and diversion toward controlled treatment pathways are more influential than isolated end-of-pipe interventions, highlighting the importance of an integrated low-carbon MSW strategy.]]>
