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All Journal IJEMS (Indonesian Journal of Environmental Management and Sustainability)
Choirul Mahdianto
Plantation Agency, Provincial Government of West Java, Bandung, West Java, 40133, Indonesia
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Energy Environmental Science Public Health

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Beyond Linear Regression: A Non-Linear Hygroscopic Growth Correction for Satellite-Derived PM2.5 Estimation in Tropical Environments Lasmita Sari; Choirul Mahdianto
Indonesian Journal of Environmental Management and Sustainability Vol. 10 No. 4 (2026): December
Publisher : Magister Program of Material Science, Graduate School of Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26554/ijems.2026.10.4.364-379

Abstract

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) estimation from satellite-derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) is often biased in humid tropical environments because aerosol water uptake enhances optical extinction without a corresponding increase in dry particulate mass. This study develops a physics-informed, non-linear AOD-to-PM2.5 conversion framework that explicitly accounts for hygroscopic growth. Four years (2020–2023; N = 1.456 daily observations) of AOD, PM2.5, and relative humidity (RH) data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global reanalysis over Jakarta, Indonesia, were used to quantify humidity-dependent bias and estimate an empirical hygroscopic exponent (gamma). The conventional linear model showed systematic overestimation under high-humidity conditions (RH > 80%), with a mean positive bias of 18.7 µgm-3. Incorporating the hygroscopic correction yielded  gamma = 0.68 ± 0.04, increased R2 from 0.52 to 0.84, and reduced RMSE from 15.8 to 8.7 µgm-3. The estimated gamma remained stable across seasonal subsets, data-availability scenarios, and quality control thresholds and was consistent with reported values for urban-industrial aerosols. These results demonstrate that explicitly representing aerosol hygroscopicity can substantially improve AOD-based PM2.5 estimation in humid tropical environments. Although calibrated using CAMS reanalysis over Jakarta, the framework provides a physically interpretable and reproducible approach that can be applied to other regions after appropriate local recalibration.
Co-Authors Lasmita Sari