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All Journal Noumerico: Journal of Technology in Mathematics Education
Noor Alhuda Madzlan
Sultan Idris Education University
Computer Science & IT Education Mathematics Social Sciences

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Students’ Probabilistic Reasoning Under Mathematical Uncertainty: An Interpretive Study of Adversity-Related Responses Firda Hariyanti; Noor Alhuda Madzlan; Umi Hanifah; Hodiyanto; Fajriyah Rachmatika; Cahya Mar’a Salihah Sumantri
Noumerico: Journal of Technology in Mathematics Education Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): Noumerico, September 2026
Publisher : Universitas Islam Tribakti Lirboyo Kediri

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33367/jtme.v4i2.9972

Abstract

Probabilistic reasoning requires students to interpret uncertain information, construct possible outcomes, justify conclusions, and regulate their thinking when difficulty arises. This study examined how adversity-related response profiles are reflected in students’ probabilistic reasoning under mathematical uncertainty. Using a qualitative multiple-case design, three Grade 8 students with contrasting Adversity Quotient (AQ)-related profiles completed two open-ended probability tasks followed by semi-structured interviews. We analyzed written responses and interview data within and across cases to examine interpretation, possibility construction, strategy development, mathematical justification, evaluation, and responses to difficulty. The findings showed no fixed correspondence between AQ-related profiles and the quality of probabilistic reasoning. Reasoning varied across tasks and representations, while persistence and solution checking became productive when they supported clarification, strategy adjustment, or evaluation. Cross-case analysis also showed that different representational approaches could support successful reasoning without forming a fixed AQ-based hierarchy. These findings informed an empirically grounded conceptual model linking probabilistic task demands, reasoning processes, responses to difficulty, and cognitive regulation, with AQ-related profiles positioned as an interpretive context rather than a causal predictor of mathematical performance. The study highlights the importance of supporting students in monitoring, justifying, and revising their reasoning under uncertainty.
Co-Authors Cahya Mar’a Salihah Sumantri Firda Hariyanti Hodiyanto Umi Hanifah