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Rizal Riyadi
Department of Management, Institut Bisnis dan Informatika Kesatuan
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Tourism Driving Growth ASEAN‑5 Policy Challenges Jan Horas Veryady Purba; Rizal Riyadi
ETIKONOMI Vol. 25 No. 2 (2026)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business, Universitas Islam Negeri Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15408/etk.v25i2.51834

Abstract

Research Originality: This study presents a unified dynamic panel approach for the ASEAN-5, offering fresh empirical insights by integrating tourism and macroeconomic dimensions to reveal unexplored growth–policy linkages. Research Objectives: The main objective is to examine short‑run and long‑run determinants of GDP growth, with emphasis on tourism, macroeconomic stability, and fiscal policy. Research Methods: The study employs a robust fixed-effects panel model and a dynamic Panel VAR, complemented by IRF and VD, to capture short-run shocks, long-run responses, and determinants of change in ASEAN‑5. Empirical Results: Tourism, inflation, exchange rate, and fiscal expenditure are the main factors shaping GDP growth in ASEAN‑5. In the short run, tourism expansion and moderate inflation support growth, while fiscal imbalance and currency depreciation weaken it. In the long run, tourism remains a structural driver, but persistent fiscal imbalances and exchange rate depreciation have negative effects. Inflation’s influence fades over time. FDI and trade openness show no significant impact, reflecting dependence on sectoral allocation and institutional quality. Implications: Policymakers should strengthen tourism, optimize FDI for infrastructure development, pursue pro-growth fiscal strategies, and safeguard stability, aligned with ASEAN integration goals. JEL Classification: E62, F21, F43, L83, O47
Co-Authors Jan Horas Veryady Purba