<![CDATA[The Bendung watershed plays an important role as the main drainage system that flows into the Musi River in Palembang City. Changes in land cover, which is dominated by built-up areas and densely populated areas, have disrupted the hydrological cycle and increased the potential for flooding. A total of 21 tributaries around residential areas are not functioning optimally due to siltation and residential density, thereby reducing the soil's ability to absorb water and triggering surface runoff. This study aims to analyze the effect of land cover change on flood vulnerability, focusing on the Kemuning and Ilir Timur III subdistricts through which the tributaries flow. It applies the methods of spatial-temporal analysis to identify land cover changes in 2004, 2014, and 2024, as well as a weighted scoring analysis using NDVI, NDWI, SAVI, and rainfall data, based on primary and secondary data. The results showed that the main change over the last 20 years was the conversion of undeveloped land to developed land, covering an area of 488.71 ha, or 38.46% of the study area. The flood vulnerability level was dominated by the non-vulnerable and vulnerable categories. Multiple linear regression analysis indicated that there was a significant effect of land cover change on flood vulnerability of 27.5%. Thus, the reduction in undeveloped land decreased the watershed's ability to drain and absorb water due to low vegetation density, thereby increasing the potential for flood-prone areas.]]>
