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All Journal Media Edukasi Data Ilmiah dan Analisis (MEDIAN)
Septie Wulandari
BPS Provinsi Jambi

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Metode Vector Autoregressive (VAR) pada Peramalan Jumlah Kedatangan Wisatawan Mancanegara di Bali dan Jakarta Septie Wulandari
Media Edukasi Data Ilmiah dan Analisis (MEDIAN) Vol 3 No 01 (2020): Media Edukasi Data Ilmiah dan Analisis (MEDIAN)
Publisher : Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64679/median.v3i01.31

Abstract

Forecasting methods that are often used are time series analysis, the Autoregressive (AR) method. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is a combination of several Autoregressive (AR) models, in which the model forms a vector whose variables influance each other. In this study, the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model is used on the number of international visitor arrivals per month at Ngurah Rai Airport, Bali and Soekarno Hatta Airport, Jakarta for the period Januari 2014 – December 2019. VAR model formation through several stages, namely stationarity test, autoregressive order determination, VAR model formation, and diagnostic checking of the model. With the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, VAR(1), the two significant simultaneously equation results are obtained. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) in this model are as follows 5.96% in predicting the number of international visitor arrivalsin Bali and 15.1% in predicting the number of international visitor arrivalsin Jakarta. In this study also forecasting the number of international visitor arrivals in Bali and Jakarta in January – December 2020.
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