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All Journal Media Edukasi Data Ilmiah dan Analisis (MEDIAN)
Hendri Setiawan
BPS Provinsi Jambi

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Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Di Provinsi Jambi Hendri Setiawan
Media Edukasi Data Ilmiah dan Analisis (MEDIAN) Vol 4 No 01 (2021): Media Edukasi Data Ilmiah dan Analisis (MEDIAN)
Publisher : Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jambi

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.64679/median.v4i01.43

Abstract

The population of Jambi Province who depends on the agricultural sector is 45.44% of the total working population. Jambi Province is one of the provinces whose dominant business sector is agriculture, therefore a measurement tool is needed to see the level of farmer welfare, one of which is the Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP). The NTP of Jambi Province from 2014 to 2019 was mostly still below the value of 100, which means that most farmers in Jambi Province are still prosperous. The purpose of this study was to determine the best ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) periodic series model in forecasting NTP of Jambi Province.In addition, this study also aims to see the value of NTP forecasting for Jambi Province from January 2020 to June 2020. This study uses the ARIMA method using gretl software for its calculations. After going through various trials, the best model for predicting NTP in Jambi Province is the Multiplicative ARIMA Model (2,2,4) (0,0,1). Based on the forecasting results from January to June 2020, NTP in Jambi Province has a value above 100 for each months. This indicates that the level of welfare of farmers in Jambi Province in 2020 is predicted to increase. From the results of this study, suggestions can be given to the Jambi Provincial Government to be able to use forecasting in predicting NTP and to anticipate things that happen in the present and in the future that can affect the NTP of Jambi Province.
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