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Jumadi Jumadi
INTI International University, 71800 Nilai, Negeri Sembilan

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Flood Risk Analysis Using Spatial Synthetic Population in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed, Indonesia Muhammad Musiyam; Jumadi Jumadi; Vidya Nahdhiyatul Fikriyah; Heni Masruroh; Ema Dwi Septiyani; Choirul Amin; Hamim Zaky Hadibasyir; Farha Sattar; Muhammad Nawaz
Forum Geografi Vol. 39 No. 3 (2025): December 2025
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/forgeo.v39i3.13611

Abstract

This study develops a spatial synthetic population (SSP)-based computational model to produce realis-tic, high-resolution flood-risk maps for the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed. It combines Global Hu-man Settlement (spatial distribution) with local population statistics (attributes). The SSP is created for flood risk mapping in the Upper Bengawan Solo Watershed (BSH) using a 100 m grid from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) GHS-POP R2023A. Synthetic individuals are strategically placed around the pixel centre (radius ≤ 100 m), and each is assigned demographic attributes (age, gender, ed-ucation, occupation) validated against official county-level data. Social vulnerability is calculated through weighted aggregation (AHP) across four attributes; individual scores are combined with flood hazard intensity at each location to produce a risk index for each person. Validation shows that (i) the SSP aligns closely with reference statistics: gender and age are nearly identical (MAE ≈ 0.01–0.02%), with slight deviations in occupation (MAE 6.52%) and education (MAE 4.89%), (ii) the overall suita-bility of the SSP compared to GHS counts at pixel samples, and (iii) location plausibility testing using ESRI Sentinel‑2 Land Cover (10 m). Results indicate that (i) the SSP aligns well for gender, moderately for education and occupation, but shows significant misalignment in age, (ii) 91.96% of SSP points are in built-up land, suggesting high spatial accuracy. Medium- to high-risk patterns are mainly along the main river corridors and peri-urban areas, while rural non-built zones are mostly low- to medium-risk. These findings suggest that this methodology is scalable, reproducible, and suitable for data limited regions, enabling the production of detail risk maps that can guide mitigation and preparedness efforts.
Can Machine Learning See Maladaptation? A Systematic Evidence Map of AI in Global South Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change Muhammad Musiyam; Choirul Amin; Vidya Nahdhiyatul Fikriyah; Arif Rohman; Munajat Tri Nugroho; Rudiyanto Rudiyanto; Jumadi Jumadi
Forum Geografi Vol. 40 No. 3 (2026): December 2026
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.23917/forgeo.19002

Abstract

Climate change threatens agriculture and rural livelihoods across the Global South, and machine learning (ML) is increasingly deployed to support climate adaptation. Nevertheless, the literature has not systematically mapped whether ML reaches beyond upstream hazard prediction into the downstream stages where adaptation outcomes and maladaptation become visible. This article develops a PRISMA-guided systematic evidence map of AI/ML in Global South agricultural adaptation. A Scopus search using a four-block Boolean string (ML/AI, climate hazard, adaptation/livelihood, and agrarian population) returned 310 records. Records were screened through three eligibility layers (topical relevance, climate-adaptation relevance, and Global South relevance) and were coded according to the deepest stage of the adaptation cycle reached. At the current evidence-mapping stage, 241 records were retained. The studies are dominated by publications from 2024-2026 and are concentrated in India, China, Pakistan, and Ethiopia. ML is heavily concentrated upstream: hazard prediction and monitoring (151 studies; 62.7%) and adaptation decision-making (82 studies; 34.0%). Downstream stages are almost empty: only 6 studies (2.5%) address vulnerability assessment, 2 studies (0.8%) evaluate adaptation outcomes, and none (0.0%) evaluate maladaptation. Within this mapped corpus, machine learning cannot yet see maladaptation: it predicts hazards but remains largely disconnected from the livelihood consequences of adaptation responses. Future research should shift ML from predictive accuracy toward causal, longitudinal, and justice-sensitive evaluation of adaptation outcomes.