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All Journal Journal of Scientific Research, Education, and Technology Ezra Science Bulletin
Rizal
Halu Oleo University Kendari, Indonesia
Arts Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Engineering Social Sciences Other

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Fiscal Decoupling? How Capital Expenditure Mediates the Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Poverty and Unemployment in Emerging Regions Rizal
EZRA SCIENCE BULLETIN Vol. 4 No. 2 (2026): July - December 2026
Publisher : Kirana Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58526/ezrasciencebulletin.v4i2.633

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the impact of fiscal transfers, including the General Allocation Fund (DAU), the Special Allocation Fund (DAK), and the Revenue Sharing Fund (DBH), on poverty levels and the Open Unemployment Rate (TPT) in 34 Indonesian provinces, by placing Capital Expenditure as a moderating variable. Using an explanatory quantitative approach with the Two-Way Fixed Effects Model (FEM) method on panel data for the 2017–2023 period, the results show that the fiscal transfer component does not directly have a significant effect on poverty. However, after the inclusion of interaction variables, Capital Expenditure is proven to significantly moderate by strengthening the negative impact of DAU in reducing poverty rates, while the interaction of DAK and Capital Expenditure is positively associated as a reflection of the accuracy of policy allocation ( policy targeting ) to areas with high structural poverty. On the other hand, DAU consistently has a negative and significant effect on reducing unemployment (TPT) in all model specifications, while Capital Expenditure is not proven to moderate the relationship between fiscal transfers and TPT because labor absorption in the physical infrastructure sector tends to be temporary and seasonal
Buffering MSMEs Against Economic Shocks: The Synergistic Role of Tax Incentives, Financial Digitalization, and Operational Efficiency in Indonesia Rizal
Journal of Scientific Research, Education, and Technology (JSRET) Vol. 5 No. 4 (2026): Vol. 5 No. 4 2026
Publisher : Kirana Publisher (KNPub)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.58526/jsret.v5i4.1278

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of tax incentives, financial digitalization, and operational cost efficiency on the resilience of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia, while also testing the mediating role of financial digitalization in the relationship between tax incentives and MSME resilience. Using balanced panel data from 34 Indonesian provinces during the period 2017-2024 (272 observations), this study applies the Random Effect Model (REM) for the first path equation and the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) for the second path equation based on the results of the Chow Test and the Hausman Test, supplemented by the Sobel Test to test the mediation effect. The results show that partially, tax incentives have no significant effect on financial digitalization (coefficient = 0.2502; p = 0.6328), financial digitalization has a significant negative effect on MSME resilience (coefficient = -0.0045; p = 0.0000), and operational cost efficiency has a positive and strong significant effect on MSME resilience (coefficient = 0.3527; p = 0.0000). Simultaneously, all three variables significantly influenced MSME resilience (F = 21.0829; p = 0.0000). The mediating effect of financial digitalization was not proven significant (Z = -0.4752; p = 0.6346), because the path from tax incentives to financial digitalization was not significant even though the path from financial digitalization to MSME resilience was significant. The R-square (within) value of 21.21% in the second path equation indicates that this model has quite good explanatory power regarding the variation in MSME resilience over time within one province. The findings regarding the negative impact of financial digitalization emphasize the need for a more cautious policy approach, which not only encourages the adoption of financial technology alone, but also ensures the readiness of managerial capabilities and financial literacy of MSMEs so that the benefits of digitalization can truly be converted into business resilience.
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