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All Journal Jurnal Ilmiah HUBUNGAN INTERNASIONAL Global Strategis
Widian, Rizky
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Revisiting Balance of Threat Theory: The Case of Contemporary Southeast Asia in the Context of Great Power Contestation Widian, Rizky
Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional Vol. 21 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional
Publisher : Parahyangan Center for International Studies

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26593/jihi.v21i1.9152.53-84

Abstract

Southeast Asian countries, situated at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, are increasingly exposed to intensifying great power competition between China and the United States (US). According to Balance of Threat (BoT) theory, states are more likely to align tightly with a less threatening power in response to rising threats characterized by a rival's aggregate power, geographical proximity, offensive capabilities, and aggressive intentions. Based on these indicators, BoT would predict stronger alignment between Southeast Asian countries and the US to balance against the perceived threat from China. However, alignment behavior in the region varies, suggesting the need for closer empirical scrutiny. This study reexamines BoT theory in the Southeast Asian context through a structured comparative empirical analysis of ten countries between 2000 and 2021. The findings reveal that while BoT’s core prediction holds in some cases, alignment outcomes are mixed. Thus, the theory receives only partial support in explaining Southeast Asian states’ responses to China’s rise.   Keywords: Balance of Threat theory, Southeast Asia, alignment behavior, great power competition, US-China rivalry, Indo-Pacific, threat perception, security cooperation, comparative analysis, regional security
Cooperation & Security Dilemma In The South China Sea Widian, Rizky; Arimadona, Arimadona
Global Strategis Vol. 12 No. 2 (2018): Global Strategis
Publisher : Department of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Science, Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (379.277 KB) | DOI: 10.20473/jgs.12.2.2018.91-106

Abstract

This article will talk about security dilemma and offense-defense balance in the South China Sea. The rising of China's power in the South China Sea that facilitate the process security dilemma makes cooperation between claimant countries become more difficult. Regarding this matter, it's important to explain why cooperation in the area is difficult in the midst of many literatures that advocated cooperation as the tools for conflict management in the South China Sea. In order to form an ideal explanation, this article will refer to the concepts of security dilemma and offense-defense balance by Robert Jervis. The data in this article will be explored using qualitative research method of literature review to illustrate the distribution of power in the region. Through the data exploration, this article found that China's offensive power in the South China Sea is large enough to cause the sense insecurity and security dilemma. Thus, this article argue that the security dilemma caused by China's offensive power capability in the South China Sea is the main the reason that inhibiting cooperation between claimant states.
Revisiting Balance of Threat Theory: The Case of Contemporary Southeast Asia in the Context of Great Power Contestation Widian, Rizky
Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional Vol. 21 No. 1 (2025): Jurnal Ilmiah Hubungan Internasional
Publisher : Parahyangan Center for International Studies

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26593/jihi.v21i1.9152.53-84

Abstract

Southeast Asian countries, situated at the heart of the Indo-Pacific, are increasingly exposed to intensifying great power competition between China and the United States (US). According to Balance of Threat (BoT) theory, states are more likely to align tightly with a less threatening power in response to rising threats characterized by a rival's aggregate power, geographical proximity, offensive capabilities, and aggressive intentions. Based on these indicators, BoT would predict stronger alignment between Southeast Asian countries and the US to balance against the perceived threat from China. However, alignment behavior in the region varies, suggesting the need for closer empirical scrutiny. This study reexamines BoT theory in the Southeast Asian context through a structured comparative empirical analysis of ten countries between 2000 and 2021. The findings reveal that while BoT’s core prediction holds in some cases, alignment outcomes are mixed. Thus, the theory receives only partial support in explaining Southeast Asian states’ responses to China’s rise.   Keywords: Balance of Threat theory, Southeast Asia, alignment behavior, great power competition, US-China rivalry, Indo-Pacific, threat perception, security cooperation, comparative analysis, regional security
Co-Authors Arimadona, Arimadona