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All Journal Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Ajriansyah Ajriansyah
Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember, Indonesia
Mathematics

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Nonlinear Small Area Poverty Estimation with MARS-Based Feature Reduction Ajriansyah Ajriansyah; Bambang Widjanarko Otok; Sutikno Sutikno
Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya Vol 5 No 2 (2026): Parameter: Jurnal Matematika, Statistika dan Terapannya
Publisher : Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Pattimura

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Abstract

The use of small area estimation combined with multivariate adaptive regression splines (SAE-MARS) is intended to address the lack of estimation precision in cases with nonlinear patterns. Compared to previous studies,which generally treated MARS solely as a tool to capture nonlinear functions without feature/variable selection, the novelty of this study lies in introducing a stepwise variable reduction procedure based on GCV to eliminate uninformative predictors. Two modeling schemes wereconstructed: using all variables (SAE-MARS-full) and reducing insignificant variables (SAE-MARS-reduced). The SAE-MARS method wasimplemented usingtwo-stage modeling. The first stage formedthe MARS model, and then proceededto the second stage to construct the SAE. SAE-MARS can deliver a sharp reduction in standard error; however,this does not apply globally. The SAE-MARS-reduced model performedslightly better becauseofits simpler structure and high level of model accuracy. Although the decrease in average global RRMSE between the two SAE-MARS models appears modest (13.02% for SAE-MARS-reduced compared to 13.37% for SAE-MARS-full), feature reduction yields a very consistent precision advantage across all regions. Thus, the proposed SAE-MARS-reduced model is empirically proven to effectively handle nonlinear patterns, produce highly precise estimates, and demonstrate that eliminating unimportant variables in the MARS process iscrucial.
Co-Authors Bambang Widjanarko Otok Sutikno Sutikno