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All Journal ECSOFiM (Economic and Social of Fisheries and Marine Journal)
Kasmin, Muh Obi
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Social Sciences

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Fisheries GDP Growth and Fishers’ Terms of Trade in Indonesia Kasmin, Muh Obi; Asni, Asni; Amin, Muhtar; Riska, Riska
ECSOFiM (Economic and Social of Fisheries and Marine Journal) Vol 14, No 1 (2026): ECSOFiM October 2026
Publisher : Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.ecsofim.2026.014.01.01

Abstract

Indonesia's fisheries sector is economically important, but sectoral growth may not improve fishers' purchasing power. This study examines the relationship between fisheries GDP growth and the Fishers' Terms of Trade (Nilai Tukar Nelayan, NTN) using quarterly data for 2020Q1–2026Q2. Monthly NTN data from the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries were averaged by quarter, yielding 26 observations. The analysis uses descriptive statistics, Pearson and Spearman correlations, and OLS regressions with HAC (Newey–West) standard errors. Mean NTN was 104.07, while average year-on-year fisheries GDP growth was 3.44%. GDP growth was positively correlated with NTN (Pearson r = 0.463, p = 0.017; Spearman ρ = 0.493, p = 0.010). The static regression indicated that a one-percentage-point increase in GDP growth was associated with a 0.30-point increase in NTN. However, after controlling for lagged NTN, the growth coefficient fell to 0.051 and was not significant at the 5% level; lagged NTN remained positive and significant. Thus, the static association was not robust to accounting for prior NTN. As NTN measures relative purchasing power rather than multidimensional welfare, these findings do not establish an overall improvement in fishers’ welfare.
Co-Authors Amin, Muhtar Asni Asni Riska Riska