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All Journal Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis
Dzikrika Bunga Ardika
Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Social Sciences

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Efektivitas Transmisi Kebijakan Moneter terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Periode 2016–2025 Dzikrika Bunga Ardika; Maimun Sholeh
Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis Vol. 5 No. 4 (2026): November: Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jekombis.v5i4.7230

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission to inflation in Indonesia from August 2016 to December 2025, a period that coincides with the implementation of the BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate and its subsequent renaming as the BI-Rate, while also covering the COVID-19 shock, the 2022 inflation surge, policy normalization, and the 2025 easing cycle. Monthly data comprising 113 observations include year-on-year CPI inflation, Bank Indonesia's policy rate, broad money (M2), and the rupiah–US dollar exchange rate. The empirical strategy combines an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, bounds testing, and a first-difference short-run dynamic specification. Unit-root tests indicate that all variables are integrated of order one, I (1), with no I (2) variable. The Akaike Information Criterion selects an ARDL (4,1,0,1), but the Bounds Test produces an F-statistic of 2.124397, below the 5% lower bound of 2.790, indicating no evidence of a stable long-run relationship. In the short-run model, changes in the policy rate, M2, and the exchange rate are statistically insignificant, whereas the third lag of the change in inflation is positive and significant (coefficient 0.306491; p=0.0014). Diagnostic tests indicate no serial correlation or heteroskedasticity, adequate functional specification, and parameter stability according to CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares, although residual normality is rejected. The findings suggest that direct transmission through the three examined channels is statistically limited over the sample, underscoring the relevance of policy lags, credit and expectations channels, and supply-side and external shocks in explaining Indonesian inflation dynamics.
From Social Assistance to Economic Self-Reliance: An Evaluation Framework for Social Safety Nets in Indonesia: A Narrative Literature Review Dzikrika Bunga Ardika; Kiromim Baroroh
Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis Vol. 5 No. 4 (2026): November: Jurnal Penelitian Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis
Publisher : Lembaga Pengembangan Kinerja Dosen

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.55606/jekombis.v5i4.7260

Abstract

Social safety nets are essential to poverty reduction, yet their effectiveness cannot be assessed through the volume of benefits distributed alone. Through a purposively selected narrative review, this article synthesizes evidence on consumption protection, human capital development, targeting quality, and the relationship between social assistance and economic self-reliance in Indonesia. It applies a narrative literature review using peer-reviewed research, institutional reports, official statistics, and policy documents. A thematic synthesis distinguishes empirical findings from conceptual policy proposals. Experimental evidence on Indonesia’s conditional cash transfer program shows improvements in several health and education outcomes but no transformative household economic change during the six-year observation period. Integrated social registries offer opportunities to improve targeting, provided that data quality and grievance mechanisms are maintained. The article develops a four-dimensional evaluation framework covering protection adequacy, human capital, governance quality, and productive economic capacity. It argues that social assistance and economic empowerment should be complementary and tailored to beneficiaries’ circumstances. The conclusions are conceptual and should not be interpreted as new causal estimates of poverty impacts.
Co-Authors Kiromim Baroroh Maimun Sholeh