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All Journal CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi
Rahmawati Tri Iriani
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Indonesia
Mathematics

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Panel Data Break the Diagnostics of Geographically Weighted Regression: Five Failures, Their Repair, and a Rice-Productivity Application in Indonesia Rahmawati Tri Iriani; Danang Ariyanto
CAUCHY: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi Vol 11, No 2 (2026): CAUCHY: JURNAL MATEMATIKA MURNI DAN APLIKASI
Publisher : Mathematics Department, Maulana Malik Ibrahim State Islamic University of Malang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.18860/cauchy.v11i2.44351

Abstract

Geographically weighted panel regression (GWPR) is assembled from cross-sectional tools. Five of them fail on a balanced panel whose units keep their coordinates over time. Each failure is stated as a proposition, derived in closed form, and repaired. An adaptive bandwidth in rows is not identified. A fold that holds out a whole unit cannot score a fixed-effects model without a plug-in level. A grid counted in units saturates at the inner training size, where its tie rule picks the bandwidth. A local and a global model share one information criterion only through a composite smoother. The BreuschPagan statistic reduces to a constant set by the sample size. The repairs are applied to 272 province-years, comprising 34 Indonesian provinces from 2018 to 2025, with log yield as the outcome. Under nested leave-one-province-out cross-validation, the global two-way fixed-effects model attains a cross-validated R2 of 0.100 and the GWPR 0.064. The GWPR loses in every variant tried. A province-block permutation test cannot distinguish Indonesia's real map from a random relabelling, and none of the 136 local slopes differs from its global counterpart. The R2 of 0.9997 in the earlier version of this study comes from the accounting identity between production and harvested area.
Co-Authors Danang Ariyanto