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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Anugra S.A. Dunggio
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Implementasi Metode Ordinary Kriging Dengan Semivariogram Spherical, Exponential, Dan Gaussian Pada Intensitas Hotspot Kebakaran Hutan di Provinsi Riau Sitti Masyitah Meliyana; Anugra S.A. Dunggio
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2600

Abstract

Riau Province is one of the regions in Indonesia with a high level of vulnerability to forest and land fires. This is indicated by the detection of thousands of hotspot points across the region. The tendency of hotspots to form clusters indicates a spatial pattern that needs to be analyzed to support mitigation efforts. This study aims to analyze the spatial dependence structure of hotspot distribution, determine the best semivariogram model among the Spherical, Exponential, and Gaussian models based on cross-validation, and map the distribution of hotspots in Riau Province using the Ordinary Kriging method to identify areas that may serve as priorities for forest and land fire mitigation. The data used were secondary hotspot data from 2025 along with their geographic coordinates. The analysis was conducted through the construction of an experimental semivariogram, fitting of theoretical semivariogram models, and model evaluation using cross-validation based on MSE values. The results showed that the Exponential model provided relatively good estimation performance, with the lowest MSE value of 2.116. The interpolation results indicated that most areas had low to moderate hotspot intensity, while several areas exhibited high intensity and may serve as priority areas for forest and land fire mitigation.
Co-Authors Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R.