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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Taura Davin Santosa
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Penerapan Model SARIMAX untuk Peramalan Curah Hujan dengan Variabel Eksogen Indian Ocean Dipole di Kota Pariaman Taura Davin Santosa; Fadzilla Kusuma Ningrum; Amalia Khoirum Mazidah; Nasrudin Nasrudin
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2762

Abstract

Rainfall is seasonal, fluctuating, and influenced by external factors, requiring a method capable of capturing these patterns while incorporating exogenous variables. In this study, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variable (SARIMAX) model is applied and compared with the SARIMA model to assess the extent to which the inclusion of the exogenous IOD variable improves rainfall forecasting accuracy in Pariaman City. The data used consist of monthly secondary data for rainfall and the IOD from January 2010 to December 2024. The results indicate that the SARIMAX model outperformed the SARIMA model in forecasting performance. The best-performing model was SARIMAX(0,0,0)(1,1,1)12 with a MAPE value of 36.25% and an RMSE of 174.03. The forecasting results are expected to serve as a reference for formulating regional economic development policies and managing climate-sensitive sectors, thereby enhancing the economic resilience of Pariaman City to climate variability.
Co-Authors Amalia Khoirum Mazidah Fadzilla Kusuma Ningrum Nasrudin Nasrudin