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All Journal Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Ingrid Vanessa Martina Samosir
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Peran Sektor Manufaktur terhadap Neraca Perdagangan di ASEAN-5 Nela Nur ’Azizah; Ingrid Vanessa Martina Samosir; Andhin Intannegara; Agung Ismial; Muhammad Syarif Lutfi; Rofiq Nur Rizal
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2026 No 1 (2026): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2026
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2026i1.2859

Abstract

International trade is an important indicator of economic performance, particularly through the trade balance. This study analyzes the relationship of Manufacturing Value Added (MVA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), return exchange rate, and inflation with the trade balance in goods of ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines) during 2015–2024. The study uses secondary panel data from the World Bank. Estimation was conducted using a Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS) with Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) weighting. The results show that all variables are jointly significantly associated with the trade balance. Partially, MVA is positively and significantly associated, return exchange rate is negatively and significantly associated, inflation is positively and significantly associated, while FDI is negatively but not significantly associated. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening the manufacturing sector and domestic supply chains to support trade performance in ASEAN-5.
Co-Authors Agung Ismial Andhin Intannegara Muhammad Syarif Lutfi Nela Nur ’Azizah Rofiq Nur Rizal