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All Journal Indonesian Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance
Titis Miranti
Universitas Islam Negeri Maulana Malik Ibrahim
Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Sukuk and Inflation Dynamics in Indonesia: A Time Series Linear Model Investigation Laila M. Pimada; Titis Miranti
Indonesian Journal of Islamic Economics and Finance Vol. 4 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Institut Agama Islam Sunan Giri Ponorogo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37680/ijief.v4i1.5716

Abstract

This study examines the impact of sukuk on inflation in Indonesia, considering the interplay of macroeconomic factors during the post-COVID-19 recovery period. Employing a time series linear model (TSLM) with monthly data from January 2019 to March 2024, we investigate the relationship between sukuk outstanding and inflation (Consumer Price Index), controlling for industrial production, exchange rate, interest rate, and the Composite Leading Indicator (CLI). Results reveal a significant positive relationship between sukuk and inflation, suggesting that an increase in outstanding sukuk is associated with higher inflation rates. This finding contributes to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence of the inflationary impact of sukuk in Indonesia, especially in the context of post-pandemic recovery. The study also identifies significant positive relationships between inflation and interest rates, as well as inflation and CLI, highlighting their roles in driving inflation. While the exchange rate also exhibits a positive relationship with inflation, industrial production shows a negative association, suggesting a potential dampening effect on inflation. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power, with an adjusted R-squared of 0.9818, indicating that the included variables effectively capture the variation in inflation. These findings offer valuable insights to help policymakers formulate effective inflation management strategies and ensure macroeconomic stability in Indonesia's post-pandemic recovery.
Co-Authors Laila M. Pimada