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All Journal JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA)
Rakhmawan, Sapto
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Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology

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Forecasting The Export Value of Iron and Steel during The Covid-19 Pandemic Rakhmawan, Sapto
JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN Vol 4, No 3 (2021): DECEMBER
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomika dan Bisnis, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/jdep.4.3.196-210

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has indirectly impacted international trade activities. This also affected the decline in Indonesian exports during 2020. Amid declining Indonesian exports, iron and steel commodities showed positive growth. Iron and steel export has contributed significantly to Indonesia's non-oil and gas export. Hence, the export of iron and steel is essential for boosting the economic development. Forecasting iron and steel export, therefore, becomes a necessity to assist the government in making the right policies related to the economic development. In this study, the ARIMA model will be discussed in-depth and will be applied to forecast the export value of iron and steel. We use export value of iron and steel data from January 2009 to December 2020. The results show that the ARIMA model is suitable for modeling iron and steel export data and the export value of iron and steel will increase for the next 12 periods.
Peramalam Ekspor Minyak Kelapa Sawit Indonesia Menggunakan Model ARIMA Rakhmawan, Sapto
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 7 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (360.442 KB) | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v7i2.10837

Abstract

Indonesia is a country known as the biggest exporter of palm oil in the world. It is well known that palm oil is very important for our daily life including cooking oil, vegetable fat for milk and ice cream, raw materials of soap or cosmetics industry, or alternative fuels. The export value of palm oil has contributed significantly to the trade balance of Indonesia, and hence it is essential for boosting the economic development of the nation. Forecasting the export values of palm oil, therefore, becomes a necessity to help the government in making right policy related to the economic development. In this article, we discussed ARIMA model and applied these model to forecast the palm oil export values. We used monthly palm oil export value starting from January 2008 until December 2018. The results showed that ARIMA model was suitable for time series data. The forecasting results showed that the palm oil export value will increase for the next 24 period.
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