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All Journal Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Journal of Business and Information System
Sayifullah, Sayifullah
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Relative risk of COVID-19 pandemic and regional inflation convergence in Indonesia: Spatial panel data approach Sayifullah, Sayifullah; Arifin, Samsul
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v14i1.8935

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the risk of a COVID-19 pandemic and regional inflation convergence in Indonesia. Because the COVID-19 recession differs from the previous inflation recession, it is important to investigate regional inflation convergences in order to evaluate the inflation rate and the impact of macroeconomic policy on inflation convergence. The spatial panel data used in this study ranges from 2020:M3 to 2021:M12. The dynamic econometric spatial panel data model is used to quantify relative risk without spatial or SIRs to calculate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional inflation convergence in Indonesia. On the contrary, for calculating the risk relative to spatial elements, the CAR Leroux or BSCL Bayesian Spatial Model is used. Using BSCL, the calculation of the relative risk value for the COVID-19 pandemic concludes that Sumatera Island, Java Island, Kalimantan Island, Sulawesi Island, Maluku Island, and Papua Island have high risks, while Bali Island and Nusa Tenggara Island have low risks. In both static and dynamic models, the influence of currency circulation on inflation convergence is positive, and the relative risk of a COVID-19 pandemic on inflation convergence is negative. Monetary phenomena during the COVID-19 pandemic determined inflation behavior in Indonesia. Studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic is a deterrent to inflation convergence, while the circulation of money drives inflation convergence.
Relative risk of the COVID-19 pandemic and regional inflation convergence in Indonesia Sayifullah, Sayifullah; Arifin, Samsul
Journal of Business and Information Systems (e-ISSN: 2685-2543) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Business and Information Systems
Publisher : Department of Accounting, Faculty of Business, Universitas PGRI Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36067/jbis.v5i2.208

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the risk of a COVID-19 pandemic and the regional inflation convergence in Indonesia. It is important to examine the regional inflation convergences to evaluate the inflation rate and the impact of macroeconomic policy on inflation convergence, as the COVID-19 recession differs from the previous inflation recession. To calculate the impact of the relative risk of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional inflation convergence in Indonesia, the dynamic econometric spatial panel data model is used to calculate relative risk without spatial or SIRs. On the contrary, for calculating the risk relative to spatial elements, the CAR Leroux or BSCL Bayesian Spatial Model is used. Using BSCL, the calculation of the relative risk value for the COVID-19 pandemic concludes that Sumatera Island, Java Island, Kalimantan Island, Sulawesi Island, Maluku Island, and Papua Island have high risks, while Bali Island and Nusa Tenggara Island have low risks. In both static and dynamic models, the influence of currency circulation on inflation convergence is positive, and the relative risk of a COVID-19 pandemic on inflation convergence is negative. Studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic is a deterrent to inflation convergence, while the circulation of money drives inflation convergence.
MONETARY POLICY CHALLENGES IN THE NEW NORMAL ERA: A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW Arifin, Samsul; Sayifullah, Sayifullah
Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 22, No 2 (2022): Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Pembangunan
Publisher : EP FEB UNS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20961/jiep.v22i2.56222

Abstract

This paper aims to provide a systematic literature review (SLR) of studies conducted on the economic impact of the epidemic using the DSGE model. This research is guided by the PRISMA Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses) statement, utilizing a systematic literature review (SLR) with Harzing's Publish or Perish software and Google Scholar as the primary sources, specifically focusing on the DSGE model's application. Under PRISMA, research is researched through three processes: 1) Defining clear research questions that allow systematic research, 2) Identifying inclusion and exclusion criteria, and 3) Examining a large database of scientific literature within a set time. A total of 11 out of 38 papers were identified and analyzed to provide a better understanding of the epidemiological model, the tradeoff of the lockdown policy between health and economy and the methodology adopted in the previous studies while the rest of the most recent studies appear to be related to the DSGE model with the adaptation of the epidemiological model during the Covid-19 pandemic. A total of four studies agree that many countries are imposing “lockdowns,” if not generally implementing “social distancing” to contain and potentially eliminate the virus.
Co-Authors Samsul Arifin