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All Journal Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Journal of Business and Information System
Sayifullah, Sayifullah
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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Relative risk of COVID-19 pandemic and regional inflation convergence in Indonesia: Spatial panel data approach Sayifullah, Sayifullah; Arifin, Samsul
Optimum: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol. 14 No. 1 (2024)
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/optimum.v14i1.8935

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the risk of a COVID-19 pandemic and regional inflation convergence in Indonesia. Because the COVID-19 recession differs from the previous inflation recession, it is important to investigate regional inflation convergences in order to evaluate the inflation rate and the impact of macroeconomic policy on inflation convergence. The spatial panel data used in this study ranges from 2020:M3 to 2021:M12. The dynamic econometric spatial panel data model is used to quantify relative risk without spatial or SIRs to calculate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional inflation convergence in Indonesia. On the contrary, for calculating the risk relative to spatial elements, the CAR Leroux or BSCL Bayesian Spatial Model is used. Using BSCL, the calculation of the relative risk value for the COVID-19 pandemic concludes that Sumatera Island, Java Island, Kalimantan Island, Sulawesi Island, Maluku Island, and Papua Island have high risks, while Bali Island and Nusa Tenggara Island have low risks. In both static and dynamic models, the influence of currency circulation on inflation convergence is positive, and the relative risk of a COVID-19 pandemic on inflation convergence is negative. Monetary phenomena during the COVID-19 pandemic determined inflation behavior in Indonesia. Studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic is a deterrent to inflation convergence, while the circulation of money drives inflation convergence.
Relative risk of the COVID-19 pandemic and regional inflation convergence in Indonesia Sayifullah, Sayifullah; Arifin, Samsul
Journal of Business and Information Systems (e-ISSN: 2685-2543) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2023): Journal of Business and Information Systems
Publisher : Department of Accounting, Faculty of Business, Universitas PGRI Yogyakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.36067/jbis.v5i2.208

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the risk of a COVID-19 pandemic and the regional inflation convergence in Indonesia. It is important to examine the regional inflation convergences to evaluate the inflation rate and the impact of macroeconomic policy on inflation convergence, as the COVID-19 recession differs from the previous inflation recession. To calculate the impact of the relative risk of the COVID-19 pandemic on regional inflation convergence in Indonesia, the dynamic econometric spatial panel data model is used to calculate relative risk without spatial or SIRs. On the contrary, for calculating the risk relative to spatial elements, the CAR Leroux or BSCL Bayesian Spatial Model is used. Using BSCL, the calculation of the relative risk value for the COVID-19 pandemic concludes that Sumatera Island, Java Island, Kalimantan Island, Sulawesi Island, Maluku Island, and Papua Island have high risks, while Bali Island and Nusa Tenggara Island have low risks. In both static and dynamic models, the influence of currency circulation on inflation convergence is positive, and the relative risk of a COVID-19 pandemic on inflation convergence is negative. Studies show that the COVID-19 pandemic is a deterrent to inflation convergence, while the circulation of money drives inflation convergence.
Co-Authors Samsul Arifin