Rakhmawati, Umi
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MORTALITY PREDICTION SCORE IN CHILDHOOD TUBERCULOSIS MENINGITIS IN INDONESIA Rakhmawati, Umi; Herini, Elisabeth Siti; Triono, Agung
MNJ (Malang Neurology Journal) Vol. 12 No. 2 (2026): July (ARTICLE IN PRESS)
Publisher : PERDOSSI (Perhimpunan Dokter Spesialis Saraf Indonesia Cabang Malang) - Indonesian Neurological Association Branch of Malang cooperated with Neurology Residency Program, Faculty of Medicine Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21776/ub.mnj.2026.012.02.03

Abstract

Background: Pediatric tuberculous meningitis (TBM) is a severe complication of extrapulmonary TB, with a 19% mortality rate. Objective: We aimed to determine the mortality predictors and the mortality score of pediatric TBM. Methods: A retrospective case-control study was conducted on children aged 1 month to 18 years with TBM at Dr. Sardjito General Hospital, Banyumas District Hospital, Sleman District Hospital, and Academic Gadjah Mada University Hospital from January 2018 to December 2023. Data were collected from medical records. Variables predictive of death were assessed, and positive and negative likelihood ratio values were calculated. Variables were organized into a score using the Spiegelhalter-Knill-Jones method. The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic (AUC–ROC) was used to determine the cut-off value of the total score. Internal validation was performed by assessing sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and accuracy. Results: Among 37 patients, 14 (37.9%) died during hospitalization. The ROC curve of the scoring system had an AUC value of 0.78 (95% CI 0.608–0.948), indicating sufficient accuracy. Mortality prediction score was ≥–8.5 with a sensitivity of 64.0% and specificity of 91%. Nutritional status, consciousness, and comorbidities were significantly associated with mortality in TBM patients. Conclusion: Nutritional status, consciousness, and comorbidities are significantly associated with mortality in TBM patients. The results suggest that a cut-off value of ≥–8.5 is considered a good reference point for implementing a mortality prediction score, as it demonstrates good sensitivity and specificity.