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All Journal Jurnal Fisika FLUX Journal La Sociale Journal La Multiapp
Malasan, Hakim Luthfi
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Aerospace Engineering Automotive Engineering Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Earth & Planetary Sciences Education Engineering Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics Social Sciences

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Prediction of Hydropower Plant Electricity Production Dependence on Weather Conditions Using the SARIMAX Model Zulfialda, Dennis Hasnan; Nugroho, Catur Arie; Malasan, Hakim Luthfi
Journal La Multiapp Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025): Journal La Multiapp
Publisher : Newinera Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37899/journallamultiapp.v6i1.1841

Abstract

Electricity production from Hydroelectric Power Plants (PLTA) that depends on the water capacity in the dam. The water capacity depends on uncertain weather conditions such as drought caused by the El Niño Storm, which has an impact on the lack of water supply that enters the hydropower turbine which is then converted into electrical energy. Accurate predictions are needed to be able to mitigate existing weather fluctuations. In this study, the SARIMAX model on electricity production data integrated with weather data for 4 years from January 2020 to December 2023. The SARIMAX model with optimal parameters (p=0, d=1, q=1, P=1, D=0, Q=1, s=12) provides quite satisfactory prediction results for hydropower power production. SARIMAX obtained MSE values of 0.00101, MAE 0.0274, and RMSE 0.0318. The study also highlights the significance of accurate prediction of hydropower production, emphasizing the importance of external factors such as weather in particular El Niño. Understanding and predicting weather patterns is critical to the power generation system of hydropower in making decisions and optimizing the operation of the electricity system efficiently.
Value at Risk Analysis for Asset Acquisition Investment Needs Process Using Monte Carlo Method Based on Asset Return Level Nugroho, Catur Arie; Zulfialda, Dennis Hasnan; Malasan, Hakim Luthfi
Journal La Sociale Vol. 6 No. 2 (2025): Journal La Sociale
Publisher : Borong Newinera Publisher

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.37899/journal-la-sociale.v6i2.1860

Abstract

This study aims to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) analysis process in measuring the maximum level of losses that can be accepted in the investment process to acquire assets that are already operating. An investment program must be able to measure the risks that will be faced in the future so that the VaR analysis. This study uses a quantitative approach through secondary data. The techniques used are data preprocessing scaling techniques, correlation between features and forecasting modeling through linear and non-linear regression mechanisms through repeated simulations (Monte Carlo). The research method for this VaR analysis uses several features from historical data with a probability level of 95%. From the results of the simulation of VaR, a prediction was obtained for the next 3 years, investors will not suffer losses, so that the profit obtained is $ 25 million from the estimated asset return value of 1.3% with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) value of 0.13. Based on the weighting results, it was also found that the asset value volatility parameter has the largest weight that affects the VaR value.
Photometric Observations of Short Period Variable Stars: EH Librae Djumari, Sulthan Julieri; Malasan, Hakim Luthfi; Wibowo, Ridlo Wahyudi; Wahidin, Alka Budi
Jurnal Fisika Flux: Jurnal Ilmiah Fisika FMIPA Universitas Lambung Mangkurat Vol 21, No 1 (2024): Jurnal Fisika Flux: Jurnal Ilmiah Fisika FMIPA Universitas Lambung Mangkurat
Publisher : Lambung Mangkurat University Press

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20527/flux.v21i1.17865

Abstract

EH Librae [BD-00 2911; αJ2000 = 14h58m55.92s; δJ2000 = -0°56'53.01'] is a pulsating variable δ Scuti stars which is located in the constellation of Libra and has a period of 0.0884129 days. The aim of this research is to obtain and analyze the light curve, deduce the period, and derive the physical parameters of EH Librae. Observations were made using the ITERA Robotic Telescope 0.25m Ritchey-Cretian with CCD ATIK 383L+ on the BVR band. Aperture photometry was performed to measure the flux of EH Librae. Light curve was constructed using the differential photometry method, and the determination of the period was carried out using the Lomb – Scargle method. Secondary data from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is used as an addition to derive the physical parameters of EH Librae. The results of this study are the light curve of EH Librae on the BVR band with Magnitude, V = 9.506 – 10.071 ± 0.002. Using the index color  = 0.271, we derived the   = (7.7 ± 0.4) 103 K. O – C diagram shows no significant changes in the period. Derivation of physical parameters are  = 2.12 ;  = 1.4 ; and  = 3.93 cgs was carried out using asteroseismology method with  = 846  and  = 51.9 
Co-Authors Djumari, Sulthan Julieri Nugroho, Catur Arie Wahidin, Alka Budi Wibowo, Ridlo Wahyudi Zulfialda, Dennis Hasnan