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All Journal Science and Technology Indonesia Community Service For Sustainable Community Journal
misiran, masnita
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Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemical Engineering, Chemistry & Bioengineering Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Materials Science & Nanotechnology Physics Social Sciences

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Optimizing Generalized Linear Models for Real Estate Investment Risk: A Hybrid Genetic Algorithm and IRLS Approach Abubakar, Hamza; Misiran, Masnita; Mansor, Kamarun Hizam; Sabri, Shamsul Rijal Muhammad
Science and Technology Indonesia Vol. 10 No. 1 (2025): January
Publisher : Research Center of Inorganic Materials and Coordination Complexes, FMIPA Universitas Sriwijaya

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.26554/sti.2025.10.1.88-100

Abstract

Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) serve as a powerful extension of traditional linear regression, enhancing statistical analysis capabilities. This study employs a GLM to forecast the Return on Investment (ROI) within Nigeria’s real estate and construction sectors, utilizing a comprehensive dataset that includes data from the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) and macroeconomic indicators from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), spanning 2017 to 2023. The model integrates critical macroeconomic indicators, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Interest Rates (IR), and the Unemployment Rate (UR), while also considering interaction effects and non-linear terms to enhance predictive accuracy. Two methods were used to assess the GLM: Genetic Algorithms (GLM-GA) and Iteratively Reweighted Least Squares (GLM-IRLS), both of which revealed significant insights. Adjusted R2 values ranged from 0.68 to 0.73, with the highest in 2019 (0.73) and the lowest in 2021 (0.68). The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) exhibited variation, with values between 365.50 in 2019 and 386.30 in 2021, indicating differing model efficiency across years. Investment risk metrics, such as Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), showed upward trends, with VaR increasing from 7.50 in 2017 to 9.20 in 2022, and CVaR rising from 7.00 to 8.70 in the same period, reflecting heightened risk exposure. The findings underscore the sensitivity of ROI predictions to macroeconomic conditions and highlight the challenges of forecasting amid economic volatility. This study emphasizes the substantial impact of macroeconomic factors on ROI and the necessity of considering these variables in investment risk assessments.
Pathways to a knowledge society: A conceptual approach for changloon’s transformation Ismail, Russayani; Misiran, Masnita; Md Yusof, Zahayu; Mahat, Nor Idayu
Community Service for Sustainable Community Journal Vol. 2 No. 2: (August) 2025
Publisher : Institute for Advanced Science, Social, and Sustainable Future

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61511/csjsc.v2i2.2025.1646

Abstract

Background: The pursuit of a knowledge society in rural Malaysia represents a transformative vision of development, emphasizing innovation, inclusivity, and sustainable growth. This article introduces a conceptual framework for transitioning Changloon, a rural town, into a knowledge society over a ten-year timeline. Anchored by Universiti Utara Malaysia’s (UUM) leadership, the framework integrates education, community engagement, technology adoption, and sustainable practices across four key pillars: waste transformation, tourism transformation, knowledge transformation, and social transformation. Methods: Using the Living Lab approach, the project fosters real-time experimentation and feedback, ensuring sustainable and practical solutions. Findings: The Changloon Transformation Project (CTP) utilizes the Living Lab methodology to address socio-economic challenges and transition Changloon into a knowledge society, integrating waste, tourism, knowledge, and social pillars. Its proximity to Universiti Utara Malaysia (UUM) enhances the project's potential, ensuring community-driven, sustainable solutions. Conclusion: Despite the challenges of behavioral change and innovation among disadvantaged groups, the project addresses these issues through skills development, financial literacy, and mentorship programs. CTP serves as a replicable model for other rural communities, demonstrating how local strategic solutions and partnerships can create resilient and inclusive communities. Novelty/Originality of this article: This research contributes to the field by introducing a holistic knowledge society framework tailored to rural, integrating waste and tourism transformation as key drivers of economic and social resilience.
Co-Authors Abubakar, Hamza Ismail, Russayani Mahat, Nor Idayu Mansor, Kamarun Hizam Md Yusof, Zahayu Mokhtar, Siti Fairus Sabri, Shamsul Rijal Muhammad Yusof, Zahayu Md