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Adnyana, Made Oka
Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Tanaman Pangan
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry

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Ketersediaan Kedelai Berdasarkan Peramalan Produksinya dan Beberapa Kendala serta Permasalahannya di Indonesia Nugraha, Dedi; Wardana, I Putu; Adnyana, Made Oka
Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Vol 2, No 3 (2018): Desember 2018
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Tanaman Pangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1188.658 KB) | DOI: 10.21082/jpptp.v2n3.2018.p155-163

Abstract

Soybean take importance role as source of legumes protein for Indonesian people’s because has lower price compared with other source of protein. Soybean demand contiunously increase because population growth and development of foodindustry’s, while production growth is slowly declining (leveling off) campared to it’s demand. Soybean production’s in 2013 only 0,78 million ton, while it’s demand is 2,9 millions ton, so need import about 2.12 million tons to meet the demand. This study aims to establish a model for predicting soybean production in relationship with constraint and it’s problem as a factor of its boundary. This study used the technique of forecasting with using time series data. Best model selected will be used to estimate soybeanproduction’s. Selection of the best model using criteria Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Best model selected is ARIMA (1,1,1). Based on result of forcasting, number of soybean production’s on 2022 is 0,994 million tons. Though has productivity with increasing trend, but it’s not significant, so the production still low compared to it’s demand. Generally, decline of production caused by reduction of harvest area as one of less competitive crop compared with other secondary crops (palawija), and high biotic and abiotic pressure.
Kelayakan Teknis dan Finansial Penerapan Inovasi Teknologi Jajar Legowo Super pada Sentra Produksi Padi Sawah Irigasi di Wilayah Sumatera Priatmojo, Bhakti; Wardana, I Putu; Adnyana, Made Oka
Jurnal Penelitian Pertanian Tanaman Pangan Vol 3, No 1 (2019): April 2019
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian dan Pengembangan Tanaman Pangan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (473.655 KB) | DOI: 10.21082/jpptp.v3n1.2019.p9-15

Abstract

Jajar Legowo Technology Super (Jarwo Super, JS) is an integrated rice cultivation technology on irrigated rice field based on jajar legowo 2:1 to improve rice yield by utilizing the influence of the border effect. Jajar legowo 2: 1 is difined as crops placement technique that every two rows of rice plants followed by one blank row and repeted for next rows). Part of the Jajar Legowo Super Technology component are: 1) New Superior Varieties (VUB); 2) bio-decomposer; 3) bio-fertilizers; 4) bio-pesticides and innorganic pesticides; and 5) agricultural equipment and machinery. The purpose of this study was to determine the technical feasibility, financial feasibility, and sensitivity performance of jarwo super technology (JS) rice farming at the farmer level compared to farmers who applied conventional rice cultivation or non-jarwo (NJS) technology. The research was carried out in three provencies in Sumatera such as: Aceh Province, North Sumatra and South Sumatra Province. Increased rice productivity in Aceh province is 31%, South Sumatra 37% and North Sumatra 12%. JS financial analysis of total revenue, allocation of JS cultivation cost is about 37.19% and NJS farmer 43.59%, with R/C ratio 2,69 for JS farmers, while for NJS R/C 2,29. Meanwhile, B/C ratio 1,69 for JS farmers and 1.29 for NJS farmers. The value of MBCR of introduced super jarwo technology is 5,25 which means the introduction of super jarwo technology is worth pursuing because with  addition production costs of Rp 1 million can increase profits worth of Rp 5.25 million. According to  BEP value the JS farmers will experience a loss if the decrease in yield is higher than 63% and the NJS farmers obtain lower tolerance with 56%. The results of sensitivity analysis with various scenarios showed that super jarwo farming still provides an adequate level of profit even though it tends to decrease.
Co-Authors Nugraha, Dedi Priatmojo, Bhakti Wardana, I Putu