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Firmansyah, Achmad Fauzi Bagus
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Studi Implementasi Estimasi Luas Area Panen Padi Melalui Satellite Imagery Time Series dan Machine Learning Firmansyah, Achmad Fauzi Bagus; Permatasari, Novia; Utami, Nasiya Alifah
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2389

Abstract

Rice data is essential for policymakers in designing food security strategies in Indonesia. Currently, harvested area estimates are produced monthly using the Area Sampling Frame (ASF), although this method faces operational and cost-related limitations. Satellite Imagery Time Series (SITS) data, particularly from Sentinel-1, offers an alternative for identifying rice growth stages through machine learning-based modelling. This study applies that approach in South Sulawesi Province to estimate harvested rice area. The workflow includes regional clustering, satellite data integration, preprocessing, growth stage modelling using XGBoost, and phase area estimation. The results show that most clusters achieved high classification accuracy. Moreover, the predicted harvest area patterns closely match those from the ASF method. These findings demonstrate that using SITS data combined with machine learning offers an effective and practical alternative, especially in modernizing agricultural statistics systems in major rice-producing regions like South Sulawesi.
Analisis Volatilitas Harga Beras dan Segmentasi Wilayah Berbasis Data Digital Firmansyah, Achmad Fauzi Bagus; Sari, Dwi Puspita
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2025 No 1 (2025): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2025
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2025i1.2420

Abstract

Rice is a strategic food commodity whose price movements directly impact the economy and public welfare, particularly the SPHP (Stabilization of Food Supply and Prices) rice distributed by Perum Bulog. To maintain food security, data recentness is crucial to understand rice price fluctuation patterns and volatility characteristics across areas. This study uses data obtained through web crawling from the digital platform of the National Food Price Panel (PHPN) as a novel digital data source. The analysis results indicate that, in general, SPHP rice prices do not fluctuate significantly, but they remain sensitive to specific events, showing temporary volatility that tends to stabilize over time. The segmentation results reveal three regional clusters with distinct volatility characteristics. The findings of this study are expected to serve as a foundation for formulating more effective and accurately targeted food policies.
Co-Authors Dwi Puspita Sari, Dwi Puspita Permatasari, Novia Utami, Nasiya Alifah