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All Journal Jurnal Ekonomika Manajemen Dan Bisnis Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Lestari, Farianita
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Social Sciences

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Dampak Program Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) terhadap Saham Sub-Sektor Fish, Meat, Poultry di Bursa Efek Indonesia Nababan, Alwi Ihsan; Dhiyashavana, Berry; Lestari, Farianita; Indra Putri, Devana Anisha
Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen dan Bisnis (JEMB) Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): Juli-Desember
Publisher : CV. ITTC INDONESIA

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47233/jemb.v4i2.3850

Abstract

Government policies often play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing investor behavior, especially in emerging capital markets. This study examines how Indonesia's Free Nutritious Meal Program (MBG), announced in 2024–2025, affected stock performance in the Fish, Meat, and Poultry sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Using an event study approach with a 10-day observation window (t-5 to t+4, where t0 is the official announcement date), we applied the Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test to evaluate changes in Abnormal Return (AR), Trading Volume Activity (TVA), and Abnormal Trading Volume Activity (ATVA).Results show that abnormal returns remained relatively stable with a mean of -0.002805 before the event and -0.000361 after (p-value = 0.680 > 0.05), indicating no statistically significant change. Similarly, TVA and ATVA showed no abnormal patterns (p-value = 0.159 > 0.05). These findings suggest that the MBG announcement did not contain sufficient information content to trigger a significant short-term market reaction, reflecting semi-strong form market efficiency in Indonesia's capital market. Investors appear to perceive the program's direct impact on equity values as limited or delayed, with potential effects realized only in the long term.
MSCI Downgrade to Frontier Market: Lessons for Indonesia from Three Countries Ananda Fakhri, Muhammad; Lestari, Farianita; Dhiyashavana, Berry
Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah Vol. 8 No. 4 (2026): Al-Kharaj: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah
Publisher : Intitut Agama Islam Nasional Laa Roiba Bogor

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47467/alkharaj.v8i4.11882

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of MSCI reclassification from Emerging Market (EM) to Frontier Market (FM) on stock market return and capital flow dynamics, using a comparative approach across three historical cases: Jordan (November 2008), Argentina (May 2009), and Morocco (November 2013). The research employs two complementary methods: (1) an event study using daily stock index data from Investing.com, measuring cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) via the Market Model with MSCI World Index as benchmark, tested using the Brown-Warner BMP test; and (2) a before-after analysis using annual Balance of Payments data from the World Bank (indicator BN.KLT.PTXL.CD), tested using the Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test. All statistical analyses were performed using RStudio 2024.09.2+398. Results show that Jordan experienced the most severe impact with CAR reaching -54.43% (p<0.01) at ED [-20,+60] and -71.35% (p<0.01) at ED [-60,+120], confirming the Price Pressure Hypothesis. Morocco exhibited limited short-term price impact due to an FM premium effect, but recorded a net foreign flow decline of USD -1.554 billion post-downgrade. Argentina showed anomalous positive CAR attributed to Global Financial Crisis recovery effects coinciding with the downgrade period. These findings serve as empirical benchmarks for Indonesia, which faces a MSCI rebalancing freeze since January 2026 and potential downgrade risk ahead of the May 2026 review.
Co-Authors Ananda Fakhri, Muhammad Dhiyashavana, Berry Indra Putri, Devana Anisha Nababan, Alwi Ihsan