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Markov chain modeling of daily rainfall in Lay Gaint Woreda, South Gonder Zone, Ethiopia Getachew, Birhan; Teshome, Menberu
Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Vol. 5 No. 2 (2018)
Publisher : Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15243/jdmlm.2018.052.1141

Abstract

Information on seasonal Kiremet and seasonal Belg rainfall amount is important in the rain fed agriculture of Ethiopia since more than 85% of the population is dependent on agriculture particularly on rain fed farming practices. The distribution pattern of rainfall rather than the total amount of rainfall within the entire period of time is more important for studying the pattern of rainfall occurrence. A two-state Markov chain was used to describe the characteristics of rainfall occurrences in this woreda. The states, as considered were; dry (d) and rainy (r). The overall chance of rain and the fitted curve tells us that the chance of getting rain in the main rainy season is about twice as compared to the small rainy season. The first order Markov chain model indicates that the probability of getting rain in the small rainy season is significantly dependent on whether the earlier date was dry or wet. While the second order Marko chain indicates that the main rainy season the dependence of the probability of rain on the previous two dates’ conditions is less as compared with the small rainy season. Rainfall amounts are very variable and are usually modeled by a gamma distribution. Therefore, the pattern of rainfall is somewhat unimodial having only one extreme value in August.  Onset, cessation and length of growing season of rainfall for the main rainy season show medium variation compared to the small rainy season.
Rural communities’ vulnerability to farmland poverty in varied ecological settings of northwest Ethiopia Teshome, Menberu
Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Vol. 5 No. 2 (2018)
Publisher : Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15243/jdmlm.2018.052.1085

Abstract

Environmental and climate changes are among the serious threats to the world’s land resources in the 21st Century. Particularly, in the developing countries the impact inevitably goes as the continuing toll on agricultural production, human lives, and properties. It is also a driving force of poverty and impediment of overall economic development in many less developed nations, like Ethiopia. Therefore, this paper assesses the rural communities’ vulnerability to farmland poverty in different ecological settings of northwest Ethiopia. Data were collected from 525 randomly selected farming households using questionnaire. Meteorological data were collected from Global Weather Data for soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) from 1979 to 2010. Rainfall and temperature trends were characterized using simple linear regression model. Rural communities’ vulnerability to farmland poverty was determined using livelihood vulnerability index (LVI). Indices were constructed using simple and weighted average approaches to measure farmlands’ exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Overall communities’ levels of vulnerability to farmlands poverty were found to be 0.76 in the lowland, 0.57 in the flat highland and 0.51 in the midland areas. In almost all indicators the lowland (Abay Valley) is more vulnerable to farmland-related troubles as the biophysical and socio-economic contexts were found to be the worst there. Communities and government and non-government officials have observed significant negative impacts of drought and extreme weather events on farmlands, pasturelands with declining availability, productivity and quality of farmlands. This study suggests education and research interventions for enhancing community-based participatory integrated watershed management approach supported with best indigenous knowledge and farmers’ practices. Adaptation interventions should also consider local communities’ resource capacity (low-cost investment in sound farmland and soil management techniques).
Climate variability, communities’ perceptions and land management strategies in Lay Gayint Woreda, Northwest Ethiopia Teshome, Menberu; Baye, Addisu
Journal of Degraded and Mining Lands Management Vol. 5 No. 3 (2018)
Publisher : Brawijaya University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15243/jdmlm.2018.053.1217

Abstract

Climate variability is the fluctuation of climatic elements from the normal or baseline values. Agrarian communities are the most sensitive social groups to climate variability and associate extreme weather-induced hazards due to the fact that climate variability affects the two most important direct agricultural production inputs, such as rainfall and temperature. As Ethiopia is heavily dependent on agriculture its economic development is being hindered by climate variability coupled with many other deriving forces. Therefore, the objective of this study is to examine climate variability, local communities’ perceptions and land management strategies to reduce the adverse impact of climate variability in Lay Gayint Woreda, Ethiopia. Both primary and secondary data were used to complete this study. Primary data were collected and analyzed from a total of 200 randomly selected respondents reside in different agro-ecological areas. Metrology data were gathered from Nefas Mewcha Station from the years 1979 to 2010. Standardized rainfall anomaly index (SRAI), crop diversification index (CDI) and other descriptive statistical techniques were used to analyze the data. The results obtained from the climate data revealed an increase in temperature, and decrease and/or erratic in rainfall distribution. Time series SRAI from 1979 to 2010 indicates that 2002 and 2008 were characterized by extreme and severe dry conditions in order of importance with high impact on crop yields whist only 1984 and 1990 received near normal rainfall amount. Similarly, the survey result reveals that out of the total household heads, 87.5 % perceived that there was an increase in temperature over the last 20 years. The survey result also disclosed that significant numbers of households are more likely to adopt different land management strategies to reduce the negative impact of climate variability. Constructing terraces and check dams as well as planting trees were the major land management strategies used by the local communities. However, crop diversification index (CDI) was found to be 0.11 as the cultivated area is stanch to one crop indicating very low alternative crop production in the study area. Although the study area receives variable and inefficient rainfall the rugged topography and poor soil conditions have hindered the development of irrigation facilities. Local context-specific integrated watershed management activities, small-scale irrigation schemes and extension services need to be strengthened to reduce the impact of climate variability. Policy makers need also to substantially invest in establishing information dissemination systems in order to provide reliable weather information for farmers given that crop production is largely dependent on it.Â