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All Journal Eduma : Mathematics Education Learning and Teaching
Sofhya, Herlinda Nurafwa
IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon
Education Mathematics

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Journal : Eduma : Mathematics Education Learning and Teaching

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Comparison of Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Cheng to Forecast Indonesia Rice Productivity Sofhya, Herlinda Nurafwa
EduMa: Mathematics education learning and teaching Vol 11, No 1 (2022)
Publisher : Jurusan Tadris Matematika IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24235/eduma.v11i1.10936

Abstract

Based on BPS data in 2019, around 90% of Indonesians consume rice as the main product of their carbohydrate needs. With the fourth most populous country in the world, Indonesia's rice consumption in 2021 will reach 31.50 million tons. Indonesia's rice production is currently not able to supply the needs of domestic rice consumption. Therefore, the Indonesian government chose to import rice for supply the needs of domestic rice consumption. Forecasting method can help the government to reduce uncertainty about the future of rice productivity. This research will discuss the comparison of the forecasting results of fuzzy timeseries using chen and cheng models in forecasting rice productivity in Indonesia. The comparison based on the percentage of eror or in this research the MAPE value is used as an indicator. The MAPE value obtained using chen model is 18% and using cheng model is 12%. The result of data analysis found that the MAPE value using cheng model is smaller than using chen model. It means that the cheng model is more appropriate used in forecasting data of  Indonesia productivity rice. However the chen and cheng models both give good forecasting result because the MAPE value is less than 20%
Fuzzy Smokers Growth Model Sofhya, Herlinda Nurafwa
EduMa: Mathematics education learning and teaching Vol 9, No 2 (2020)
Publisher : Jurusan Tadris Matematika IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24235/eduma.v9i2.7345

Abstract

The tobacco epidemic is one of the biggest public health problems in the world. Based on the data from WHO, Tobacco kills nearly 6 million people a year around the world. Monitoring tracks of smokers' growth population can be important things for the government to find the best implement policies to overcome this problem. This paper presents a smoker's growth model with uncertainty in the transmission and recovery rate. In classical smoker's growth model, the transmission and recovery rate assumed to be constant. However, in reality, the age of the population is heterogeneous, and the transmission among the population may depend on the age of the smoker. Therefore, in this paper, the transmission and recovery rate of smokers' growth model depends on the age of smokers. We divide the transmission and recovery rate into three categories based on age: Children (0-10), Adolescent (10-30), Adult (30-60). The uncertainty of transmission and recovery rate in this model represented by a triangular fuzzy number. The most important things in the model are the basic reproduction number. A basic reproduction number is an indicator of when the endemic case will occur. Therefore, the main focus of this paper is to determine the basic reproduction number of fuzzy smokers growth models using the fuzzy expected value concept. The result is the basic reproduction number of the fuzzy model is an interval. This may can be used as an upper and lower limit of the basic reproduction number  
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