Eduma : Mathematics Education Learning and Teaching
Vol 11, No 1 (2022)

Comparison of Fuzzy Time Series Chen and Cheng to Forecast Indonesia Rice Productivity

Sofhya, Herlinda Nurafwa (IAIN Syekh Nurjati Cirebon)



Article Info

Publish Date
21 Jul 2022

Abstract

Based on BPS data in 2019, around 90% of Indonesians consume rice as the main product of their carbohydrate needs. With the fourth most populous country in the world, Indonesia's rice consumption in 2021 will reach 31.50 million tons. Indonesia's rice production is currently not able to supply the needs of domestic rice consumption. Therefore, the Indonesian government chose to import rice for supply the needs of domestic rice consumption. Forecasting method can help the government to reduce uncertainty about the future of rice productivity. This research will discuss the comparison of the forecasting results of fuzzy timeseries using chen and cheng models in forecasting rice productivity in Indonesia. The comparison based on the percentage of eror or in this research the MAPE value is used as an indicator. The MAPE value obtained using chen model is 18% and using cheng model is 12%. The result of data analysis found that the MAPE value using cheng model is smaller than using chen model. It means that the cheng model is more appropriate used in forecasting data of  Indonesia productivity rice. However the chen and cheng models both give good forecasting result because the MAPE value is less than 20%

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Journal Info

Abbrev

eduma

Publisher

Subject

Education Mathematics

Description

EDUMA scientific journal is a publication containing the results of research, development, studies and ideas in the field of Mathematics Education. Firstly published in 2009 and has been listed on PDII LIPI on May 10, 2012. Based on decree number 21/E/KPT/2018, EDUMA was has been accredited by ...