Nivada, Aryos
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PEMETAAN RISIKO POLITIK DAN KEAMANAN PEMILU 2024: MEKANISME KEWASPADAAN DINI DAN IMPLIKASINYA Nivada, Aryos; Rassanjani, Saddam
JURNAL TRIAS POLITIKA Vol 8, No 1 (2024): April 2024, Jurnal Trias Politika
Publisher : Universitas Riau Kepulauan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33373/jtp.v8i1.6147

Abstract

Abstract : This article aims to explain the mapping of political and security risks related to the 2024 Indonesian General Election. It is crafted as part of an early warning mechanism. Thus, the research aims to provide a reference framework for anticipating potential disruptions to security stability during the 2024 elections. Text analysis both classical/traditional and modern/non-traditional approaches by Buzan & Hansen (2009) were utilised to map these risks. The article concludes that threats to Indonesia during the 2024 elections may come from both internal and international sources. The global geopolitical situation heating up towards the end of 2023 and the ongoing election stages pose serious potential threats to Indonesia's security. Some highlighted potential threats include the possibility of presidential impeachment, disputes over election results, grassroots polarization, and terrorism threats. The involvement of the military in handling security threats becomes inevitable, as reflected in the government's policy response involving the Indonesian National Army (TNI) in security assistance tasks alongside the police (Polri) during the elections. Limitations of this research include constraints on accessing potentially sensitive data and limitations in time and resources. Future research could broaden its scope by incorporating perspectives from various stakeholders, including civil society, media, and religious groups. Additionally, further research could focus on evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies implemented during the 2024 elections. Keywords : 2024 election; politics; security; threats; military. Abstrak : Tulisan ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan pemetaan risiko politik dan keamanan yang terkait dengan Pemilu 2024 di Indonesia. Dibuat sebagai bagian dari mekanisme kewaspadaan dini. Dengan demikian, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan kerangka rujukan dalam mengantisipasi potensi gangguan terhadap stabilitas keamanan selama Pemilu 2024. Analisis teks pada pendekatan klasik/tradisional dan modern/non-tradisional dari Buzan & Hansen (2009) digunakan untuk memetakan risiko tersebut. Artikel ini menyimpulkan bahwa ancaman terhadap Indonesia selama Pemilu 2024 dapat berasal dari internal dan internasional. Situasi geopolitik global yang memanas pada akhir tahun 2023, bersamaan dengan tahapan Pemilu yang sedang berlangsung, menimbulkan potensi serius yang dapat mengancam keamanan Indonesia. Beberapa potensi ancaman yang disorot meliputi potensi pemakzulan presiden, perselisihan hasil pilpres, polarisasi di akar rumput, dan ancaman terorisme. Keterlibatan militer dalam penanganan ancaman keamanan menjadi tidak terhindarkan, sebagaimana tercermin dalam respons kebijakan pemerintah yang melibatkan Tentara Nasional Indonesia (TNI) dalam tugas perbantuan keamanan bersama kepolisian (Polri) selama Pemilu. Limitasi penelitian ini termasuk keterbatasan dalam akses terhadap data yang mungkin sensitif, serta keterbatasan waktu dan sumber daya. Penelitian masa depan dapat memperluas cakupan dengan memasukkan perspektif dari berbagai pemangku kepentingan, termasuk masyarakat sipil, media, dan kelompok agama. Selain itu, penelitian lanjutan dapat fokus pada evaluasi efektivitas strategi mitigasi risiko yang diimplementasikan selama Pemilu 2024. Kata Kunci : pemilu 2024; politik; keamanan; ancaman; militer.
Dinamika Hubungan Institusionalisasi Partai dan Kepercayaan Politik: Menjelaskan Penurunan Dominasi Partai Aceh di Legislatif Kota Banda Aceh Nivada, Aryos; Paskarina, Caroline; Solihah, Ratnia; Ganjar Herdiansah, Ari
Nakhoda: Jurnal Ilmu Pemerintahan Vol 24 No 2 (2025)
Publisher : Laboratorium Jurusan Ilmu Pemerintahan FISIP Universitas Riau

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35967/njip.v24i2.891

Abstract

This study explores the reasons behind the decline of the Aceh Party in the Banda Aceh City legislative elections over four election cycles (2009, 2014, 2019 and 2024). After an initial success in 2009 with six seats, the party experienced a gradual decline, losing four seats in 2014, two in 2019, and ultimately losing all representation in 2024. This decline raises questions about the internal and external dynamics that influence the resilience of local parties in the post conflict period. The study employs a neo-institutional framework that combines the concepts of party institutionalization and public trust. The approach used is qualitative, using data collected through in-depth interviews, field observations, and secondary data analysis. The analysis reveals three main findings. First, the ideological foundation of the Aceh Party is increasingly disconnected from the diverse urban population. Second, its legislative performance fails to project a credible image in the performance of its oversight and public representation functions. Third, internal conflict and leadership changes create a fragile and unstable organizational structure. In conclusion, the party's decline is not only due to changing voter preferences but also reflects deeper institutional challenges, the inability to adapt ideology to local realities, maintain organizational coherence, and meet demands for political accountability. These findings emphasize that identity-rooted parties must adapt their historical narratives to contemporary issues and strengthen transparent governance to remain relevant in the competitive political arena.