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All Journal Jurnal Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya (Jurnal MSA) Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia Prosiding Seminar Nasional Official Statistics
Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky
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Humanities Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Environmental Science Mathematics Medicine & Pharmacology Social Sciences

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Peramalan Luas Panen Padi Indonesia Dengan Model ETS (Error, Trend, Seasonal) Kadir, Kadir; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky
Jurnal MSA (Matematika dan Statistika serta Aplikasinya) Vol 9 No 1 (2021): VOLUME 9 NOMOR 1 TAHUN 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Negeri Alauddin Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24252/msa.v9i1.19666

Abstract

Makalah ini bertujuan untuk mengevaluasi akurasi perkiraan potensi luas panen padi yang dihasilkan melalui metode Kerangka Sampel Area (KSA) dan menyajikan alternatif metode perkiraan luas panen padi dengan mempertimbangkan unsur musimam pada data. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data realisasi dan potensi luas panen padi hasil Survei KSA periode Januari 2018 sampai dengan Desember 2020. Evaluasi akurasi yang digunakan yaitu nilai Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Metode alternatif peramalan yang digunakan adalah metode ETS. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan perkiraan luas panen padi satu bulan ke depan dengan menggunakan metode KSA memiliki tingkat akurasi yang relatif tinggi, ditunjukkan oleh nilai MAPE yang relatif kecil yakni sebesar 7,52 persen. Sementara itu, ramalan panen menggunakan metode ETS memiliki nilai MAPE, MAE, dan RMSE yang relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan prediksi panen berdasarkan hasil amatan KSA. Namun, kesalahan peramalan terhadap realisasi luas panen cenderung semakin mengecil seiring dengan penambahan data training. Dengan kata lain, semakin banyak titik data untuk peramalan, semakin baik akurasi hasil peramalan yang dihasilkan oleh metode ETS. Oleh karena itu, model ini dapat dipertimbangkan dalam peramalan luas panen padi dengan menggunakan data hasil Survei KSA ke depannya.
Mengapa Petani di Pulau Jawa lebih Produktif dibanding Petani di Luar Pulau Jawa? Kadir, Kadir; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1872

Abstract

Indonesia faces a challenge to narrow the paddy yield gap between Jawa dan outside Jawa to boost national yield. It requires an understanding of the main causes of the gap. Our study aims to estimate the paddy yield gap between paddy farmers in two regions and then decompose it to identify the main contributors in explaining the gap. We estimated that the average yield of farmers outside Java is about 32 percent lower than their counterparts in Java Island. The decomposition results pointed out that the difference in characteristics only has a small contribution to the total gap. The gap happens along the data distribution, in which the gap tends to be wider in the lower part of the distribution. Our findings indicate that the gap is mainly caused by the differences in environmental factors and their interaction with farmers' characteristics. So, it needs complex socio-ecological approaches to address.
Gap Produktivitas Menurut Gender Pada Petani Padi di Indonesia Kadir, Kadir; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky
Seminar Nasional Official Statistics Vol 2023 No 1 (2023): Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2023
Publisher : Politeknik Statistika STIS

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2023i1.1889

Abstract

Our study aims to confirm the gender yield gap in the context of paddy cultivation in Indonesia by estimating the gap between female and male farmers and decomposing it to identify the explained contributing factors. Using the results of the SUTAS, we found that female farmers’ yield is lower by about 2.3 percent on average than their male counterparts. Decomposition results of Blinder-Oaxaca and Counterfactual Distribution pointed out that most of the gap can be explained by the difference in characteristics between the two groups, particularly in educational attainment and mechanization adoption, in which female farmers lag behind. We found that the gap tends to be wider at the bottom of yield distribution. Our findings suggest, improving female farmers' education and their technology adoption are key to covering the gap. However, a substantial proportion of the unexplained gap could be an indication that there is negative discrimination against female farmers.
Does Government Assistance Increase the Yield of Food Crops in Indonesia? Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky; Kadir, Kadir
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 13 No 1 (2024): April
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v13i1.377

Abstract

Government assistance has been deployed to help food crop farmers enhance their yields. However, to our knowledge, studies assessing the impact of government assistance on food crop yield using a dedicated nationwide survey in the context of Indonesia are not available yet. Thus, our study aims to contribute to the literature by assessing the impact of government assistance (fertilizers, seeds, and agricultural tools and machinery) on food crops yield using the results of the 2018 and 2021 Crop Cutting Survey conducted by BPS. By applying multinomial logistic regression, we found that the fertilizers and seeds assistance significantly lower the chance of food crop farmers experiencing lower yield, provided that the distribution is on-time and suitable with the need of farmers. In contrast, our findings indicate that the benefit of tools and machinery assistance in enhancing food crop yield has not been optimized. The study recommends a more targeted distribution of tools and machinery assistance by taking into account farmers’ needs, cultivation characteristics, and support for the maintenance and management.
Impact of Farm Size and Sociodemographic Characteristics on Agricultural Households’ Food Security Kadir, K; Prasetyo, Octavia Rizky
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 12 No 2 (2023): August
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v12i2.492

Abstract

Most agricultural households in Indonesia are small-scale farmers making them prone to food insecurity. Until recently, no study has assessed the impact of farm size and sociodemographic characteristics on the food insecurity status of agricultural households using a nationwide agricultural household survey in Indonesia. Our study aims to address this gap by utilizing the results of the first Indonesian Agricultural Integrated Survey conducted by BPS in 2021. Applying the Rasch Model and Multinomial Logistic Regression, we found that the farm size has a positive impact in lowering the probability of agricultural households experiencing moderate or severe levels of food insecurity. Our study also found that agricultural households with a higher probability of being food insecure are characterized by having higher members of households, relying only on agriculturalactivities for their livelihood, lower education attainment of household heads, and being led by female farmers. Our study recommends improving the farmers’ agricultural scale by focusing on the improvement of the yield. It can be done through the adoption of mechanization and digital technology. Moreover, we also recommend a social assistance programme for food security targeting agricultural households with characteristics identifiedin our findings.
Co-Authors Kadir Kadir Kadir, K