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All Journal The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM) Jurnal EMT KITA Syntax Literate: Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Inovasi: Jurnal Ilmiah Ilmu Manajemen Community Engagement and Emergence Journal (CEEJ) Jurnal Syntax Transformation Journal of Research in Social Science and Humanities Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Jurnal Bisnis dan Pemasaran Digital
Utama, Akbar Adhi
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Minimizing Excess Inventory and Its Impact by Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy Aditia, Rizki; Utama, Akbar Adhi
Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Vol. 5 No. 12 (2025): Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/eduvest.v5i12.51855

Abstract

This study examines how PT. TRUCKSTORS LANCAR ABADI can improve inventory management by addressing recurring sales forecasting issues. Despite extensive research on forecasting in manufacturing, there is a notable gap in understanding how to manage seasonal demand patterns in Indonesia's heavy equipment sector using integrated forecasting methods. This gap is especially clear in the lack of validated models tailored to capital-intensive industries with volatile demand cycles. Using both qualitative and quantitative approaches, the study began by gathering insights from key departments and applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The analysis identified inaccurate forecasts as the primary cause of inventory discrepancies. To address this, several forecasting models were tested. SARIMA emerged as the most effective, capturing seasonal demand fluctuations with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 15.3% and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 257 units. This outperformed alternatives such as Multi-Linear Regression (MAPE: 18.7%), Neural Networks (MAPE: 19.4%), and XGBoost (MAPE: 20.1%). Implementing SARIMA is projected to reduce interest loss by 88% (from USD 3.32 million to USD 0.39 million) and inventory holding costs by the same margin (from USD 9.64 million to USD 1.13 million annually). This model is expected to improve planning accuracy and better align projected inventory with actual levels. The study highlights the importance of integrated planning, cross-functional collaboration, and data-driven forecasting for Minimizing Excess Inventory and Its Impact by Enhancing Forecasting Accuracy in volatile markets
Reducing the Procurement Lead Time for Agreed Stock Item in Procurement Division of PT Alami Mandala Indonesia Wibisono, Ganes Agni; Utama, Akbar Adhi
Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies Vol. 6 No. 1 (2026): Eduvest - Journal of Universal Studies
Publisher : Green Publisher Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59188/eduvest.v6i1.52048

Abstract

This study investigates the persistent delays in procurement lead time for Agreed Stock Items (AGSI) within the Procurement Division of PT Alami Mandala Indonesia (AMI). AGSI refers to repeat-order materials that are already agreed upon in specification and usage, and therefore, ideally should be processed swiftly. However, data revealed that the actual PR to PO lead time consistently exceeds the company's OKR target of 14 days, creating operational inefficiencies, potential equipment downtime, and financial losses. This issue is especially critical in the context of AMI's mining operations, which are highly dependent on timely and uninterrupted supply of materials to sustain production activities. A mixed-methods research approach was adopted, combining qualitative insights from semi-structured interviews with procurement personnel and quantitative analysis of historical procurement data from SAP ERP systems spanning 2023–2024. Through this approach, the study identified key bottlenecks including repetitive manual bidding processes for the same items, incomplete or unclear material specifications, limited supplier pools, and logistical difficulties stemming from the company's remote mining sites. These issues were further structured and analyzed using a Fishbone Diagram and Current Reality Tree (CRT) to identify root causes and systemic weaknesses. To address these challenges, a set of alternative solutions was developed and evaluated using a weighted scoring method based on four criteria: potential for lead time reduction, implementation effort, cost implications, and impact on material availability. Among these, the implementation of Long Term Agreements (LTAs) with key suppliers was identified as the most feasible and impactful solution.
Co-Authors Aditia, Rizki Afin, Bayu Pramana Farmaciawaty, Desy Anisya Fauzana, Adriel Fransisca Budyanto Widjaja, Fransisca Budyanto Hary Setiawan, Hary Mursyid Hasan Basri Nugraha, Cahyo Ady Nur'Ainy, Erni Putra, Primasatria Zhes Rachmania, Ilma Nurul Safira, Farhana Sontania, Mesli Sukmadanu, Luthfi Sylvania Putri, Sylvania Wibisono, Ganes Agni