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All Journal Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Variansi : Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi Daengku: Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Innovation ARRUS Journal of Mathematics and Applied Science ARRUS Journal of Engineering and Technology PERADABAN JOURNAL of ECONOMIC and BUSINESS VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its Application on Teaching and Research Jurnal Ilmiah Sains Ininnawa: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Jeinsa : Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang ARRUS Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Diankara-Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Alfairus, Muh. Qodri
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Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Humanities Biochemistry, Genetics & Molecular Biology Chemistry Civil Engineering, Building, Construction & Architecture Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Education Electrical & Electronics Engineering Energy Engineering Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Languange, Linguistic, Communication & Media Law, Crime, Criminology & Criminal Justice Library & Information Science Mathematics Physics Public Health Social Sciences Other

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REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE MULTIVARIAT UNTUK MENENTUKAN FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KEMISKINAN DI SULAWESI SELATAN Muh. Qodri Alfairus; Muhammad Arif Tiro; Muhammad Kasim Aidid
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol 3, No 2 (2021)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Makassar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm23857

Abstract

Poverty is a condition of economic inability to meet the average standard of living of the people in an area. The percentage of poverty in Indonesia reaches 9.41% or reaches 25.14 million people. On the island of Sulawesi, the poverty percentage of the population is still quite high. One of the regions with the highest percentage of poverty in Sulawesi Island is South Sulawesi Province with a poverty percentage of 8.69%, which is ranked 18th nationally. Poverty can be seen with two indicators, namely the percentage of poor people and the poverty depth index. This study uses 5 factors that are thought to affect poverty in South Sulawesi which include the Literacy Rate, Average Length of Schooling, Open Unemployment Rate, PDRB Per Capita, and School Participation Rate. The data used in this research is data from 2018 which comes from the Central Statistics Agency of South Sulawesi. The method used to model the percentage of poor population and the depth of poverty index is a multivariate spline nonparametric regression. This method is used because it is suitable in modeling data whose patterns change at certain subintervals. The best model that is produced from the nonparametric multi-variate spline regression in South Sulawesi is the knot 2 model and the most influencing factors are the School Participation Rate and GRDP Per Capita. This method is used because it is suitable in modeling data whose patterns change at certain subintervals. The best model that is produced from the nonparametric multi-variate spline regression in South Sulawesi is the knot 2 model and the most influencing factors are the School Participation Rate and GRDP Per Capita. This method is used because it is suitable in modeling data whose patterns change at certain subintervals. The best model that is produced from the nonparametric multi-variate spline regression in South Sulawesi is the knot 2 model and the most influencing factors are the School Participation Rate and GRDP Per Capita
Metode Response Based Unit Segmentation Partial Least Square pada Model Partial Least Square Path Modeling Utriweni Mukhaiyar; Karina Ayudhia Sasmito; Muh. Qodri Alfairus
Euler : Jurnal Ilmiah Matematika, Sains dan Teknologi EULER: Volume 11 Issue 1 June 2023
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Gorontalo

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.34312/euler.v11i1.20105

Abstract

Education is an important factor that can affect the development of a country and is a basic human need. To ensure the continuous progress of education, it is necessary to pay attention to the results and achievements of education in Indonesia. In this research model, Partial Least Square Path Modeling (PLS PM) is used to explain the relationship between education outcomes and achievements and the quality dimensions of provincial education in Indonesia. However, because there is heterogeneity in the population unit, the Response Based Unit Segmentation Partial Least Square (REBUS PLS) algorithm is used to overcome the alleged heterogeneity. The results showed that there were 20 influential indicators in the structural model, with the influential paths being student activities to participation, educational facilities and infrastructure to educational outcomes and achievements, student activities to educational outcomes and achievements, and participation to educational outcomes and achievements. REBUS PLS successfully detects heterogeneity and produces two segments, with the value of R2 on the local model greater than the value of R2 on the global model and the GoF value in the GoF large category.
Comparison of Stock Prediction Using ARIMA Model with Multiple Interventions of Step and Pulse Functions Muh. Qodri; Utriweni Mukhaiyar; Vira Ananda; Siti Maisaroh
Jurnal Ilmiah Sains Volume 24 Issue 1, April 2024
Publisher : Sam Ratulangi University

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35799/jis.v24i1.51269

Abstract

Stock price predictions based on technical analysis using historical data help investors determine the optimal time to buy or sell shares with the aim of achieving maximum profits. The aim of this research is to compare the results of Kimia Farma's share price predictions using the ARIMA model with intervention analysis of two variables at once, namely the pulse function and the step function. This is the novelty of this research. The data used in this research is daily data on Kimia Farma shares from the period 16 April 2018 to 14 April 2023. The best model produced is ARIMA (0,1,1) with intervention, shown by a MAPE value of 0.3356% and an RMSE of 0.3356%. 4.03. Kimia Farma's share price prediction for the next five days is 906.5548; 905.7875; 905.0206; 904.2542; 903.4882 rupiah. An increase in share prices occurred after the intervention in the period 15 April 2023 to 19 April 2023. Keywords: ARIMA; intervention model; step and pulse function; kimia farma
A Decision-Centric Approach to Risk Management in Aviation Stock Investments Using Value at Risk and Portfolio Optimization Singagerda, Faurani Santi; Pratama, Muh. Riyaldi; Alfairus, M. Qodri; Iskandar, Akbar; Mamadiyarov, Zokir
Journal of Applied Science, Engineering, Technology, and Education Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.asci3870

Abstract

This study applies Monte Carlo simulation to analyze and compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of two Indonesian airline stocks—PT Garuda Indonesia (full-service carrier) and PT AirAsia Indonesia (low-cost carrier)—using daily return data from January to December 2023. The research examines risk-return characteristics at individual stock and portfolio levels across different confidence intervals (99%, 95%, and 90%). Results reveal that PT Garuda Indonesia exhibits higher expected returns (0.5168%) but also higher volatility (3.5980%) compared to PT AirAsia Indonesia (0.2412% return, 2.4868% volatility), reflecting their different business models. Remarkably, an equal-weight portfolio demonstrates extraordinary diversification benefits, with positive VaR values across all confidence levels, indicating robust downside protection even in adverse market conditions. At 99% confidence, the monetary VaR for a Rp100,000,000 investment shows potential maximum losses of Rp7,984,331 for Garuda and Rp5,460,951 for AirAsia, while the portfolio generates a minimum gain of Rp1,886,373. This study highlights the effectiveness of Monte Carlo VaR in capturing complex risk dynamics, demonstrates significant intra-sector diversification benefits challenging conventional diversification wisdom, and provides insights into how different airline business models translate into distinctive risk-return profiles. These findings have important implications for investment decision-making and risk management in specialized industry contexts, particularly in emerging markets.
Assessing Investment Risk in the Post-Pandemic Entertainment Industry: A Statistical Analysis of Portfolio Returns and Risk Measures Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Alsa, Yudhistira Ananda; Alfairus, Muh. Qodri; Rahman, Abdul; Kumar, Rajesh
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 6 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : PT Mattawang Mediatama Solution

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems3862

Abstract

This study examines the risk-return profiles of Warner Bros and Walt Disney stocks and analyzes their portfolio optimization potential in the post-pandemic entertainment industry landscape. Using daily stock data obtained from Yahoo Finance, we employ both traditional statistical analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques to derive robust estimates of expected returns and risk parameters. Our Value at Risk (VaR) analysis at multiple confidence levels (99%, 95%, and 90%) reveals distinct risk characteristics between the two stocks, with Walt Disney demonstrating more favorable downside protection despite similar historical return patterns. Monte Carlo simulations indicate significantly higher potential returns than suggested by historical data alone, with expected daily returns of 0.803% for Warner Bros and 0.789% for Walt Disney. Portfolio analysis with varying asset allocations demonstrates meaningful diversification benefits despite the substantial correlation (0.657) between the stocks. The optimal portfolio allocation favors a higher weight to Walt Disney (80%) compared to Warner Bros (20%), achieving the highest Sharpe ratio (0.247) and the lowest VaR at 99% confidence (-6.68%). These findings highlight the importance of comprehensive risk assessment tools in portfolio construction, particularly for industries undergoing structural transformation. The study contributes to sector-specific portfolio analysis literature by providing detailed insights into risk-return dynamics of major entertainment stocks in the evolving digital media landscape. For investors seeking entertainment sector exposure, our analysis suggests that a portfolio tilted toward Walt Disney offers the most efficient risk-return profile under current market conditions, though ongoing monitoring remains essential as business models continue to evolve.
TSA App by R Shiny : Time Series Analysis Application for Univariate Series Data Tri Utomo, Agung; Ahmar, Ansari Saleh; Aidid, Muhammad Kasim; Rais, Zulkifli; Alfairus, Muh. Qodri
ARRUS Journal of Engineering and Technology Vol. 5 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : PT ARRUS Intelektual Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35877/jetech4398

Abstract

Time series analysis is a statistical method used to model and forecast sequential data over time. This modeling is typically performed using software, but most analytical tools require paid licenses. To address this issue, the TSA App by R Shiny is developed as an open-source application that is easily accessible. The application features a dashboard-based interface designed to help users perform univariate time series analysis without requiring programming skills. This study compares the analysis results of the TSA App with other software such as R Studio, Minitab, and Python. The results show that the TSA App produces comparable outputs in terms of visualization, ARIMA modeling, and forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the TSA App provides a practical and legal solution for time series analysis, especially for users who are unfamiliar with coding.
Drivers of Firm Value: Profitability Mediating Leverage and Firm Size in Mining Companies Mubaraq, Muhammad Raihan; Muh. Qodri Alfairus; Alia Rezki Amalia
Peradaban Journal of Economic and Business Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Pustaka Peradaban

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59001/pjeb.v5i1.833

Abstract

This study examines the effects of leverage and firm size on firm value, as well as the mediating role of profitability in mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The mining sector, being capital-intensive and sensitive to global commodity price fluctuations, requires effective financial management to sustain firm value and investor confidence. A quantitative causal-comparative design was applied, with data analyzed using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) through SmartPLS 4. The sample consisted of 75 observations from mining companies during the 2022–2024 period The results indicate that leverage has a positive and significant effect on firm value, while firm size shows a positive but non-significant effect. Profitability has a strong positive influence on firm value. However, neither leverage nor firm size significantly affects profitability, and profitability does not mediate the relationship between these variables and firm value. These findings highlight the importance of managing leverage and enhancing profitability to improve firm value in the mining sector. This study contributes to the literature by clarifying the role of financial structure and profitability in firm valuation within capital-intensive industries. Practically, the results provide guidance for mining companies in optimizing financial strategies and strengthening investor confidence, while policymakers may consider measures to support profitability stability and market performance. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh leverage dan ukuran perusahaan terhadap nilai perusahaan, serta peran profitabilitas sebagai variabel mediasi pada perusahaan pertambangan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Sektor pertambangan, sebagai industri yang padat modal dan sensitif terhadap fluktuasi harga komoditas global, memerlukan manajemen keuangan yang efektif untuk menjaga nilai perusahaan dan kepercayaan investor. Desain penelitian kuantitatif kausal-komparatif diterapkan dalam studi ini, dengan analisis data menggunakan Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) melalui perangkat lunak SmartPLS 4. Sampel penelitian terdiri dari 75 observasi dari perusahaan pertambangan selama periode 2022–2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa leverage berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai perusahaan, sementara ukuran perusahaan menunjukkan pengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan. Profitabilitas ditemukan memiliki pengaruh positif yang kuat terhadap nilai perusahaan. Namun, baik leverage maupun ukuran perusahaan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap profitabilitas, dan profitabilitas tidak memediasi hubungan antara variabel-variabel tersebut terhadap nilai perusahaan. Temuan ini menegaskan pentingnya pengelolaan leverage dan peningkatan profitabilitas untuk mengoptimalkan nilai perusahaan di sektor pertambangan. Penelitian ini berkontribusi pada literatur dengan memperjelas peran struktur keuangan dan profitabilitas dalam penilaian perusahaan pada industri padat modal. Secara praktis, hasil ini memberikan panduan bagi perusahaan pertambangan dalam mengoptimalkan strategi keuangan dan memperkuat kepercayaan investor, sementara bagi pembuat kebijakan, hasil ini dapat menjadi pertimbangan dalam merumuskan langkah-langkah untuk mendukung stabilitas profitabilitas dan kinerja pasar.
Pendampingan Pemasaran Media Sosial UMKM 'Emmy Kue' di Pasar Sentral Pangkep Sebagai Strategi Penguatan Digital Branding Usaha Muh Wahyu Tirsyad Eka Putra; Rahmatullah; Nurafni Oktaviyah; Muh. Qodri Alfairus; Ricky Setiawan; Zidan Nuraedin; Chris Dayanti Br. Ginting S, S.E., M.Si., CTT
Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat Vol. 1 No. 3 (2025): DIANKARA: Jurnal Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat
Publisher : LPPMK Universitas Ngurah Rai

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.70358/diankara.v1i3.1839

Abstract

Perkembangan teknologi digital menuntut Usaha Mikro, Kecil, dan Menengah (UMKM) untuk beradaptasi guna menjaga relevansi bisnis, namun kesenjangan literasi teknologi masih menjadi kendala utama di tingkat lokal. Kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat ini bertujuan untuk mentransformasi sistem pemasaran konvensional pada UMKM Emmy Kue di Kabupaten Pangkep menjadi sistem berbasis digital melalui platform media sosial. Metode pelaksanaan menggunakan pendekatan Participatory Action Research (PAR) yang meliputi tahapan observasi, perencanaan strategi, aktivasi akun bisnis, serta pendampingan pembuatan konten kreatif. Hasil kegiatan menunjukkan bahwa intervensi berupa optimalisasi Instagram berhasil meningkatkan visibilitas produk secara signifikan, yang dibuktikan dengan meluasnya jangkauan informasi produk kepada calon konsumen baru. Pengabdian ini menyimpulkan bahwa penguatan kehadiran digital melalui media sosial efektif dalam memperluas pangsa pasar UMKM kuliner tradisional, meskipun pengembangan identitas visual secara profesional tetap disarankan sebagai langkah pengembangan selanjutnya.
FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU PEMBIAYAAN HIJAU DI BANK-BANK INDONESIA: BUKTI DARI UKURAN, PROFITABILITAS, DAN KECUKUPAN MODAL Alia Rezki Amalia; Muh. Qodri Alfairus; Nur Abshari Abbas
Jurnal Ekonomi Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang Vol 5 No 1 (2026): hal
Publisher : Universitas Ichsan Sidenreng Rappang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.61912/jeinsa.v5i1.407

Abstract

Abstract This study aims to analyze the influence of bank size, profitability, and capital adequacy on the volume of green financing in Indonesian banking companies. Green financing plays a crucial role in supporting the transition toward a sustainable economy. However, the internal factors of banks that drive its allocation still require further investigation. This research employs a quantitative approach using secondary data collected from financial reports and sustainability reports of banks listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2020–2024. Through purposive sampling, eight banks were selected as samples based on data completeness criteria, resulting in a total of 40 observations. The analytical technique used is panel data regression with the Random Effect model. The results show that bank size and profitability have a positive and significant effect on the volume of green financing. In contrast, capital adequacy is not proven to have a significant effect. These findings indicate that large banks and highly profitable banks tend to be more active in channeling green financing, while the level of capital ratio is not yet a main determinant in the allocation of green credit in Indonesia. Bank size and profitability are the primary drivers of green financing in the Indonesian banking sector, whereas capital adequacy has not played a significant role. This study recommends that regulators strengthen incentive mechanisms that link capital adequacy with green financing performance, as well as encourage banks to integrate sustainability strategies into capital allocation in a more structured manner.
Robust Standard Error Panel Regression of Firm Size, Leverage, Profitability on Firm Value: Indonesian Mining 2022–2024 Muh Qodri Alfairus; Muhammad Raihan Mubaraq; Alia Rezki Amalia
VARIANSI: Journal of Statistics and Its application on Teaching and Research Vol. 8 No. 1 (2026)
Publisher : Program Studi Statistika Fakultas MIPA UNM

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.35580/variansiunm515

Abstract

Corporate financial information such as firm size, leverage, and profitability sends signals to the market that are reflected in firm value. However, previous studies have yielded inconsistent results, likely due to differences in estimation methods and the disregard of violations of classical assumptions in panel data. This study aims to analyze the effects of firm size (Size), leverage (DER), and profitability (ROA) on firm value (PBV) by applying panel data regression with robust standard error correction. Data were collected from 21 mining sector companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during the 2022–2024 period, yielding 63 observations. The model selected based on the Chow Test (p=1.46E-09) and the Hausman Test (p=0.002) is the Fixed Effects Model (FEM). The results of the classical assumption tests indicate violations of heteroscedasticity (p=0.029) and autocorrelation (p=0.005), so the estimation was continued using cluster-robust standard errors (clustering by time). After adjusting for the model, it was found that all three variables simultaneously had a significant effect on firm value (F-statistic, p = 0.0538). Partially, firm size had a significant negative effect (coefficient -0.481; p=0.038), leverage had a significant positive effect (coefficient 0.672; p=0.018), and profitability had a marginally significant negative effect (coefficient -0.796; p=0.092). An R-squared value of 17.6% indicates that there are still other factors outside the model that influence firm value. The conclusion of this study confirms that in the context of the Indonesian mining sector in the post-pandemic period, the market responds negatively to companies with large assets and high profitability, but responds positively to increased debt. These findings imply that investors should not focus solely on short-term profitability, and that company management should determine the optimal capital structure to increase firm value.
Co-Authors A. M. Syukur Hidayatullah Abdul Rahman Abdul Rahman Agung Tri Utomo Agung Tri Utomo Ahmar, Ansari Saleh Aidid, Muhammad Kasim Akbar Iskandar Alia Rezki Amalia Alia Rezki Amalia Alsa, Yudhistira Ananda Andi Muh Syukur Hidayatullah Chris Dayanti Br. Ginting Dunakhir, Samirah Hamidah Muslimah Husnul Amira Karina Ayudhia Sasmito Mamadiyarov, Zokir Mubaraq, Muhammad Raihan Muh Wahyu Tirsyad Eka Putra Muhammad Arif Tiro Muhammad Kasim Aidid Muhammad Raihan Mubaraq Nur Abshari Abbas Nur alim Bahri Nurafni Oktaviyah Pratama, Muh. Riyaldi Rahmat Hidayat Rahmatullah Rais, Zulkifli Rajesh Kumar Ramadhani, Febrina Nur Ricky Setiawan Ruliana Singagerda, Faurani Santi Siti Maisaroh Sitti Masyitah Meliyana R. Sudarmin Utomo, Agung Tri Utriweni Mukhaiyar Vira Ananda Zidan Nuraedin Zulkifli Rais