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All Journal International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Maysaa Abd Ulkareem Naser
University of Basrah
Computer Science & IT Electrical & Electronics Engineering

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Prediction prices of basrah light oil using artificial neural networks Maysaa Abd Ulkareem Naser
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 10, No 3: June 2020
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (822.9 KB) | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v10i3.pp2682-2689

Abstract

The global economy is assured to be very sensitive to the volatility of the oil market. The beneficial from oil prices collapse are both consumers and developed countries. Iraq economy is a one-sided economy which is completely depends on oil revenue to charge the economic activity. Hence, the current decline in oil prices will produce serious concerns. Some factors stopped most investment projects, rationalize the recurrent outflow, and decrease the development of economic activity. The study of forecast oil prices is considered among the most complex studies because of the different dynamic variables that affects the strategic goods. Moreover, the laws of economics controlling the prices of oil such as the supply and demand law. Some other variables that control the oil prices are the political conditions when these conditions contribute to the world production. The subject of forecasting has been extremely developing during recent years and some modern methods have been appeared in this regards, for example, Artificial Neural Networks. In this study, an artificial neural network (FFNN) is adopted to extract the complex relationships among divergent parameters that have the abilities to predict oil prices serving as an inputs to the network data collected in this research represent monthly time series data are Oil prices series in (US dollars) over a period of 11 years (2008–2018) in Iraq
Cascade networks model to predict the crude oil prices in Iraq Suhair A. Al-Hilfi; Maysaa Abd Ulkareem Naser
International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering (IJECE) Vol 12, No 6: December 2022
Publisher : Institute of Advanced Engineering and Science

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.11591/ijece.v12i6.pp6697-6706

Abstract

Oil prices are inherently volatile, and they used to suffer from many fluctuations and changes. Therefore, oil prices prediction is the subject of many studies in the field, some researchers concentrated on the key factors that could influence the prediction accuracy, while the others focused on designing models that forecast the prices with high accuracy. To help the institutions and companies to hedge against any sudden changes and develop right decisions that support the global economy, in this project the concept of cascade networks model to predict the crude oil prices has been adopted, that can be considered relatively as new initiative in the field. The model is used to predict the Iraqi oil prices since as its commonly known that the economy in Iraq is totally depend on oil. Therefore, it is vital to develop a better perception about the crude oil price dynamics because its volatility can cause a sudden economic crisis.
Co-Authors Suhair A. Al-Hilfi