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Isnandar Slamet
Program Studi Statistika, Universitas Sebelas Maret
Humanities Economics, Econometrics & Finance Social Sciences

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Pemodelan Deteksi Krisis Keuangan di Indonesia Berdasarkan Indikator M2/Cadangan Devisa Aisyah Zahrotul Hidayah; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Isnandar Slamet
Majalah Ilmiah Bijak Vol 16, No 2: September 2019
Publisher : Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Manajemen STIAMI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (204.843 KB) | DOI: 10.31334/bijak.v16i2.511

Abstract

The banking crisis reflects the liquidity crisis and bankruptcy of banks in the financial system. The financial crisis that occurred in mid-1997 resulted in a financial crisis that had a severe impact on the Indonesian economy. This made it aware of the importance of building a financial crisis early detection system to prepare for a crisis. The crisis occurs due to several macroeconomic indicators undergoing structural changes (regimes) and contain very high fluctuations. Combined volatility models and Markov regime switching are very suitable for explaining crises. The M2/international reserves indicator from 1990 to 2018 was used to build a crisis model. The results showed that the Markov regime switching autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model MRS-ARCH(2,1) could explain the crisis that occurred in mid-1997. Based on this model, in the future the crisis might occur if the M2/international reserves indicator decreased minimum of 13%
Pemodelan Deteksi Dini Krisis Mata Uang Berdasarkan Indiktor Nilai Tukar Nominal Adebun Adebun; Sugiyanto Sugiyanto; Isnandar Slamet
Majalah Ilmiah Bijak Vol 16, No 2: September 2019
Publisher : Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Manajemen STIAMI

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (261.134 KB) | DOI: 10.31334/bijak.v16i2.512

Abstract

The financial crisis by definition is a situation where several financial assets lose most of their nominal value. The financial crisis experienced by Indonesia in 1997 had a severe impact on the Indonesian economy, so a model was needed to detect this crisis. The financial crisis can be detected using the nominal exchange rate indicator. This study aims to determine the appropriate combination of volatility models and the Markov switching model as a model for detecting financial crises in Indonesia based on nominal exchange rate indicators. The nominal exchange rate indicator taken from 1990 to 2018 is used to build a model for early detection of the financial crisis in Indonesia. The results showed that the combined exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and Markov regime switching, MRS-EGARCH (3,1,1) volatility models were both used to detect financial crises in Indonesia based on nominal exchange rate indicators
Co-Authors Adebun Adebun Aisyah Zahrotul Hidayah Sugiyanto Sugiyanto