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Analisis Model Makro Ekonomi Regional Bali Pendekatan Solow Neclassical Growth Budhiasa, Gede Sudjana
Jurnal Kajian Ekonomi dan Keuangan Vol 16, No 3 (2012)
Publisher : Badan kebijakan Fiskal

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.31685/kek.v16i3.126

Bali Island is the most popular tourist destination in Indonesia, therfore the growth for international tourist destionation to Bali island could be impact and supporting generating income of people of Bali island. However, the policy design of one for all that was design by BTDC projects were concentrated tourist destionation at Kabupaten Badung and Kota Denpasar as main region activities.This research have been found that using econometrics two stages regression methods indicated that tourist growth center policy of BTDC is failures to distribute income and other benefits to the suburb area of 7 Kabupaten outside from center growth Kabupaten Badung and Kota Denpasar. The failure of beneficial of 7 Kabupaten to take participation is that because of the economic structure of 7 Kabupaten become dominated of primary sector and less power of industrial sectors

A SMALL SCALE MACROECONOMETRIC MODEL OF EXTERNAL DEBT, EXCHAGE RATE AND MONETARY POLICY RULE, THE CASE OF INDONESIA Budhiasa, G. Sujana
INPUT Jurnal Ekonomi dan Sosial Vol. 1, No. 2 Februari 2009
Publisher : INPUT Jurnal Ekonomi dan Sosial

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (463.576 KB)

Pengembangan model ekonomi makro berskala kecil sedang menjadi focus perhatian banyak pemodel makro ekonomi dewasa ini. Pemodelan ekonomi makro berskala kecil ini telah di pelopori oleh Agveli (1977), Batini dan Haldane (1999) untuk pengembangan pendekatan ekonomi makro moneter. Gagasan John B Taylor (1993) tentang monetary policy rule telah membangkitkan minat banyak negara untuk meng-adopsi Taylor rule bagi kepentingan praktek pengendalian Bank Sentral. Taylor (1993) dalam gagasannya mempergunakan pendekatan policy rule tingkat suku bunga sebagai reaction function untuk mendapatkan sasaran akhir inflasi dan output, dengan mengabaikan peranan exchange rate sebagai bagian penting yang menentukan keseimbangan ekonomi makro khususnya bagi negara dengan perekonomian yang semakin terbuka. McCallum dan Nelson (1998) dan sejumlah penulis lain telah mengembangkan inflation targeting framework dengan mempergunakan exchange rate sebagai anchor menggantikan peranan tingkat suku bunga. Dalam konteks pengembangan small macroeconomic model, terdapat semacam consensus bahwa para peneliti menyusun pemodelan Philip curve, aggregate demand dan fungsi lost function untuk mendeteksi kerugian minimal apabila dilaksanakan sasaran akhir untuk menetapkan inflasi yang rendah, dengan akibat terjadinya kerugian pada potensi produksi dan kesempatan kerja untuk berkembang tumbuh. Meskipun pemodelan small scale macroeconomic mencapai consensus, namun peneliti tidak memiliki keseragaman pendapat tentang muatan variabel makro ekonomi dari ketiga system persamaan sebagaimana disebutkan diatas, termasuk praktek penggunaannya, masih terdapat varitas penggunaan small simple macroeconomic model, sebaliknya terdapat sejumlah peneliti yang lebih memandang perlunya perluasan small scale macroeconomic pada tingkat medium. Peneliti pertama, melihat policy rule dari sisi praktis untuk kepentingan praktek Bank Sentral, sedangkan type peneliti kedua, untuk melihat lebih jauh dampak dari kebijakan moneter terhadap sektoral ekonomi makro tertentu. Penelitian ini merupakan langkah awal untuk melihat kemungkinan peran serta exchange rate sebagai penentu tingkat inflasi, terutama dari deficit yang terjadi pada neraca pembayaran, serta pada akhirnya berdampak pada perdagangan ekspor dan import sebagai bagian dari aggregate demand yang akan memposisikan output potensial. Secara teoritis, peningkatan aggregate demand akan membentuk heating economics, sehingga Bank Sentral dapat melakukan intervensi di pasar valuta. Dengan menaikkan cadangan devisa, Bank Indonesia bisa berharap akan terjadinya apresiasi rupiah yang akan membuat barang impor menjadi lebih murah, atau sebaliknya meningkatkan peran aggregate demand melalui jalur nilai tukar untuk mengekang permintaan barang impor melalui langkah depresiasi. Berdasarkan hasil analisis regressi, ditemukan adanya trend tentang peranan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi secara tidak langsung. Meskipun demikian, secara keseluruhan pengujian model ekonometrik masih jauh dari sempurna, sehingga memerlukan langkah perbaikan penelitian lanjutan secara lebih mendalam, dengan mempergunakan pendekatan logaritma.

Analisis Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs Dollar, dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Ekspor Hasil Perikanan di Provinsi Bali Rahayu, Tika Aryasih; Budhiasa, I Gede Sujana
E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana Vol. 5, No. 12, Desember 2016 (pp. 1347-1585)
Publisher : E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana

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Exports of fishery products is one of the largest sub-sector that contributes to the total export value of Bali Province. This study aimed to analyze the effect of inflation, interest rates, and the exchange rate on exports of fishery products fishery in the province of Bali, to analyze how the pattern of influence (shock) between the variable interest rate and a variable rate to variable inflation and to analyze how the pattern of influence (shock) between inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates on the export of fishery products Bali Province. Data analysis technique used is the analysis of Vector Auto Regression (VAR) with the help of Eviews 8.0 applications. Results of the analysis showed inflation variable significant negative effect on second lag on the export of fishery products in the province of Bali. Variable rate no significant effect on the export of fisheries in the province of Bali. Variable interest rates and significant negative berepengaruh the first lag and lag positively on both the export of fishery products in the province of Bali. The results of this research was supported by the impulse response analysis and analysis of variance decompositions that show that the proportion of the largest and most diverse on the variables affecting export of fisheries in the province of Bali.

Analisis Pengaruh Konsumsi, Investasi, dan Inflasi Terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto di Indonesia Tahun 2000-2012 Yudisthira, I Made; Budhiasa, I Gede Sujana
E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana Vol. 2, No. 11, November 2013 (pp. 492-546)
Publisher : E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana

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Economic development in a country, basically aims to achieve social prosperity through economic growth, and economic development among these there are linkages between national and regional development close to each other, thus forming a strong economy, strong, and evenly. Economic development is not just struggling to think and worry about how to achieve high economic growth. Development was to improve the quality of life and well-being of society. Economic growth alone is measured by Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The purpose of this research was to determine the effect of consumption, investment, and inflation to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The research was conducted in Indonesia from 2000 to 2012 in the form of quarter as much data as the number 52. This research used Two Stage Least Square (TSLS) as an analytical technique. Based on the analysis, it was found that consumption and investment, are significantly positive toward GDP models, while inflation is positive but not significant toward GDP. Consumption is significantly positive towrd investment model, while the inflation variable is positive but not significant toward investment model. Inflation is positive but not significant toward consumption models.

Pengaruh Kunjungan Wisatawan Mancanegara, Wisatawan Domestik, Jumlah Hotel dan Akomodasi Lainnya Terhadap Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) di Kabupaten Badung Tahun 2001-2012 Amerta, I Gusti Ngurah Oka; Budhiasa, I Gede Sudjana
E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana Vol. 3, No. 2, Februari 2014 (pp. 48 - 76)
Publisher : E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana

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Regional income is a regional financial resources from the relevant local area. This study aims to determine the influence the number of foreign tourist visiting, the number of domestic tourist visiting, hotels to the number of hotels and other accomodation in Badung, and determine the effect number of foreign tourist visiting, domestic tourist visiting, number of hotels and other accomodation to regional income in Badung years 2001-2012. Sampling in this study using Bootstrapping and than processed using computer programs Eviews and Lisrel 8.80 with path analysis technique. The analysis showed that the number of foreign tourist visiting effect is positive and significant, the number of domestic tourist visiting effect is negative and not significant to the number hotel and others accomodation. The number of foreign tourist visiting effect is positive and significant, the number of domestic tourist visiting effect is negative and significant, the number of hotel and others accomodation effect is negative and not significant to regional income in Badung years 2001-2012. So the infrastructure that supports the development of tourism in Bali especially Badung should be increased.

Pengaruh Akumulasi Modal, Pendidikan, Kreativitas dan Lokasi Usaha Terhadap Pendapatan Pedagang Perempuan Paramita, Ayu Nyoman; Budhiasa, I Gede Sujana
E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana Vol. 3, No. 5, Mei 2014 (pp.173- 226)
Publisher : E-Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Universitas Udayana

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In this research will be found the effect of financial capital accumulation, the level of education, the creativity of labour and the trading location do to income of woman trader at Sukawati Art Market. This research used 80 kind of samples and use bootstrap method. Use primary data, the data gain, is analyzed previously by factor analysis, validity test and reliability test for creativity of labour ( X3) variable. The data had been collected is analyzed by path analysis. The result of research stated that financial capital accumulation variable, the creativity of labour, and the trading location give positif and significant impact do to income. Next the creativity of labour variable and trading location give positif and significant impact do to variable the financial capital accumulation. And for the level of education variable give negative impact for the income and financial capital accumulation.

REVIEW TENTANG DESIGN MONETARY POLICY RULE UNTUK INDONESIA Budhiasa, G. Sujana
IQTISHODUNA IQTISHODUNA (Vol 4, No 2
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi, UIN Maliki Malang

The development monetary policy rule has become a fashionable macroeconomic modeling as pioneering by Taylor (1993)Â Indonesia is one of emerging market countries that has advantages in adopting the Taylor monetary policy rule that was implementing together with inflation targeting framework dealing with the central bank law of Bank Indonesia on the new task for stabilizing the domestic currency, so that the new law of Bank Indonesia might be appropriate to adopt inflation targeting framework (Taylor, 2000). According to the new law, Bank Indonesia is obliged to announce the inflation plan at the beginning of the year to the public. Alamsyah, Agung and Zulverdy (2001), point-out that Bank Indonesia has become implemented the inflation targeting framework because it was obligated by the new law of Bank Indonesia. Practical of inflation targeting framework (ITF) in many countries adopted Taylor modified monetary policy rules with using many anchors. Svensson (1999) argued that because uncertain of some economic variables behavior, using interest rate as single anchor as recommended by Taylor rules can be robustness.Bank Indonesia have practical a single anchor called SBI Rate in implementing the inflation targeting framework.Â SBI Rate is recommended by McNelis (1999) and also Darsono et. al (2002)Â as the single instrument rule for managingÂ inflation gap and output gap in Indonesia.This paper is intends to study the development of policy rule theory and its possibility of those model developed for implementing at Bank Indonesia macroeconomic model.

DESAIN MONETARY POLICY RULE UNTUK PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA: KASUS INDONESIA Budhiasa, G. Sudjana
IQTISHODUNA IQTISHODUNA (VOL 8, NO 1
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi, UIN Maliki Malang

This paper is trying developing a small scale Keynesian macroeconometric model for Indonesia as the main framework to explain some characterized of macroeconomic variables and its transmission path in order to understand how economy of one country is work. However, the main goal of the developing this macroeconomic model is based on monetary perspective, so that the model would be linked with policy framework of Central Bank as guidance and its strategy for combating inflation and at the same time can be achieve the expansion of employment and economic growth as well. This macroeconometric model is transmitted facilities and take function as the macroeconomic channel for testing the effectively of BI rate as monetary instrument. So that the model as developed in this paper will be examine using 2SLS simultaneous econometricÂ methods and the next simulation process as an effort in understanding the fenomena as Indonesian economy is working under the recognition ofÂ monetary instrument policy.

ANALISIS TINGKAT KESEJAHTERAAN PETANI DI DESA BANGLI KECAMATAN BATURITI KABUPATEN TABANAN I Wayan Ardika; Gede Sujana Budhiasa
PIRAMIDA Vol 13 No 2 (2017): PIRAMIDA`- Jurnal Kependudukan dan Pengembangan Sumber Daya Manusia
Publisher : Puslit Kependudukan dan Pengembangan SDM Universitas Udayana

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Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh tingkat pengetahuan terhadap tingkat kesejahteraan petanidengan sarana produksi sebagai variabel mediasi di Desa Bangli Kecamatan Baturiti Kabupaten Tabanan. Datapenelitian diperoleh dari studi kepustakaan, observasi dan kuesioner. Pengisian kuesioner diukur melalui skalaLikert. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode analisis data SEM dengan alat analisis SmartPLS 3.0. Untuk mencaridan menjelaskan pengaruh dan hubungan antar variabel dengan menggunakan pengujian hipotesis (ExplanationResearch). Berdasarkan Uji SEM PLS dapat dinyatakan 1). Tingkat pengetahuan berpengaruh positif dan signifikanterhadap tingkat kesejahteraan petani pada Gabungan Kelompok Tani Sapta Kerta Buana Desa Bangli KecamatanBaturiti Kaupaten Tabanan. 2) Sarana produksi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat kesejahteraanpetani pada Gabungan Kelompok Tani Sapta Kerta Buana Desa Bangli Kecamatan Baturiti Kabupaten Tabanan.3) Tingkat pengetahuan petani berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat kesejahteraan petani padaGabungan Kelompok Tani Sapta Kerta Buana Desa Bangli Kecamatan Baturiti Kabupaten Tabanan

REVIEW TENTANG STUDI PEMODELAN MAKRO EKONOMI DI INDONESIA Gede Sudjana Budhiasa
Buletin Studi Ekonomi Vol 17.No.2.Agustus 2012 (PP.99-225)
Publisher : Buletin Studi Ekonomi

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Abstract: Review of Indonesia’s Macroeconometris Model. The study reviews of some econometric modeling that developed by Bappenas, BKF Kemenkeu RI and Bank of Indonesia have been used some different instrument but with the same target goals such as low and stable inflation and together with economic growth as well. However, the different styles of macroeconomic model of those institutions can bee seen as the difference of institutions mission and targets. The model that were developed of different macroeconomic style models. Bappenas was developed a Mundell Fleming macroeconomic model that have characterized with small country argument related to international mobility of capital. The MODFI of BKF Kemenkeu tends to organized the government budgetary strategy based on taxes intervention to private consumption, investment and economic growth. On the other hands, MODBI of Bank Indonesia macroeconomic model is strongly focused on monetary instrument of interest rate and foreign exchange rate as policy variable of handling the trade-off between inflation and economic growth. We can conclude that all those of the model studied categorized as large macroeconomic models that might be fail to capture some substantial strategic issues, therefore have look as the weakness of accuracy model in guidance decision making process. Finally, that the large scale macroeconomic model could be face some difficulties especially in finding the robust significant parameter estimates, and might be set-up those of the models become less valuable in academic responsiblity. Abstrak: Review Tentang Studi Pemodelan Makro Ekonomi Di Indonesia. Kajian tentang pemetaan pemodelan ekonomi makro diperoleh dari Bappenas, BKF Kemenkeu, dan Bank Indonesia. Ketiga institusi tersebut memiliki kesamaan target ekonomi makro, yaitu mengendalikan Philip curve untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi dan stabilitas inflasi sekaligus. Meskipun demikian, ketiga lembaga menggunakan pilihan penggunaan instrumen kebijakan yang berbeda. Bappenas menggunakan optimalisasi sumber daya melalui peranan politik APBN dan kebijakan moneter, untuk mencapai target ekonomi makro dengan mengembangkan konsep pemodelan Mundell Fleming macroeconomic model. Kemenkeu RI lebih terfokus kepada kebijakan fiskal dalam rangka menggerakkan pasar konsumsi domestik, investasi, dan dinamika perdagangan internasional. Model ekonomi makro Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Kemenkeu tampaknya lebih mendekati pemodelan yang dikembangkan di sejumlah negara Eropa, khususnya pada kerja sama ekonomi Benelux ( Belgia, Nederland, Luxemburg). Pemodelan yang sangat fiscalist lebih memfokuskan kepada pemberdayaan ekonomi regional melalui politik anggaran APBN. Berbeda dengan pemodelan makro ekonomi dua lembaga diatas, maka Bank Indonesia mengembangkan MOBDI, dengan memilih instrumen suku bunga domestik dan nilai tukar. Keduanya sebagai instrumen dalam rangka mengelola kebijakan moneter mencapai tujuan akhir. Kata kunci : model makro, agregatif, model ekonometrika

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