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Agatha Rachmat
University of Indonesia
Computer Science & IT

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Comparison of exponential smoothing and neural network method to forecast rice production in Indonesia Gregorius Airlangga; Agatha Rachmat; Dodisutarma Lapihu
TELKOMNIKA (Telecommunication Computing Electronics and Control) Vol 17, No 3: June 2019
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12928/telkomnika.v17i3.11768

Abstract

Rice is the most important food commodity in Indonesia. In order to achieve affordability, and the fulfillment of the national food consumption according to the Indonesia law no. 18 of 2012, Indonesia needs information to support the government's policy regarding the collection, processing, analyzing, storing, presenting and disseminating. One manifestation of the Information availability to support the government’s policy is forecasting. Exponential smoothing and neural network methods are commonly used to forecasting because it provides a satisfactory result. Our study are comparing the variants of exponential and backpropagation model as a neural network to forecast rice production. The evaluation is summarized by utilizing Mean Square Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE). The results show that neural network method is preferable than the statistics method since it has lower MSE and MAPE values than statistics method.
Co-Authors Dodisutarma Lapihu Gregorius Airlangga