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All Journal JBMR: Journal of Business and Management Review Quantitative Economics and Management Studies
Rashesh Vaidya
Tribhuvan University
Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Economics, Econometrics & Finance Mathematics Social Sciences

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Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) Trading Rule: An Application in Nepalese Stock Market "NEPSE" Rashesh Vaidya
Quantitative Economics and Management Studies Vol. 1 No. 6 (2020)
Publisher : Yayasan Ahmar Cendekia Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (731.201 KB) | DOI: 10.35877/454RI.qems197

Abstract

There are two types of analysis done for a stock market. One is fundamental analysis, where an investor looks at an intrinsic value of the stock, and another is technical analysis, where investors determine the future trend of the market looking at the current pattern or trend of the market. This paper is focused on one of the technical analysis tools, i.e., Moving Average Convergence-Divergence. It is a tool based on the three exponential moving average (9-12-26 EMA Rule). The MACD analysis, with the help of a single line, was helpful to find out the exact bullish and the bearish trend of the Nepse. A signal line is a benchmark to determine the stock market moving either to a bullish or bearish trend. It can help an investor, where the market is going in a direction. A market convergence, divergence, and crossover were better identified with the help of the MACD histogram. The paper found that the Nepse return was stable for a very minimal period from 1998-99 to 2019-20. The shift from the bullish to bearish or vice-verse were seen easily identified with the help of a MACD histogram. Finally, a better-combined knowledge of moving average and candlestick chart analysis will help an investor, to put a clear picture of a market trend with the help of MACD analysis.
Testing Normality for Daily Returns from the Nepalese Stock Market Rashesh Vaidya; Dilli Raj Sharma; Jeetendra Dangol
Journal of Business and Management Review Vol. 3 No. 11 (2022): (Issue-November)
Publisher : Profesional Muda Cendekia Publishing

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.47153/jbmr311.5182022

Abstract

Researchers and investors are interested in the normality of the return from the stock market and the establishment of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Nevertheless, a statistical distribution of the normality of the return helps investors predict the stock market return with the help of the basic mean and standard deviation values of the return. Hence, the paper tested the normality of the daily returns from the Nepalese stock market, Nepal Stock Exchange Limited (NEPSE). The paper followed the statistical results and data visualization to determine the normality of the stock market return. The data visualization and statistical results have shown that the daily return from the NEPSE follows a normal distribution. The test statistics for the normality of the data also show a normal distribution for the NEPSE daily return. Similarly, the parameters for the fitted distribution also reflect normality. The daily transaction volume at the stock market normally leads the daily stock market return in normality as well. The fitting of a normal distribution for the daily returns reflects that the Nepalese investors could predict market risk and return using two statistical parameters, i.e., standard deviation and mean, respectively.
Co-Authors Dilli Raj Sharma Jeetendra Dangol