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All Journal FORUM STATISTIKA DAN KOMPUTASI IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science Jurnal Statistika Universitas Muhammadiyah Semarang
Nur Iriawan
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Computer Science & IT Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Mathematics

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Journal : IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science

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Generating Hourly Rainfall Model using Bayesian Time Series Model (A Case Study at Sentral Station, Bondowoso) Entin Hidayah; Nur Iriawan; Nadjadji Anwar; Edijatno Edijatno
IPTEK The Journal for Technology and Science Vol 22, No 1 (2011)
Publisher : IPTEK, LPPM, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.12962/j20882033.v22i1.57

Abstract

Disaggregation of hourly rainfall data is very important to fulfil the input of continual rainfall-runoff model, when the availability of automatic rainfall records are limited. Continual rainfall-runoff modeling requires rainfall data in form of series of hourly. Such specification can be obtained by temporal disaggregation in single site. The paper attempts to generate single-site rainfall model based upon time series (AR1) model by adjusting and establishing dummy procedure. Estimated with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) the objective variable is hourly rainfall depth. Performance of model has been evaluated by comparison of history data and model prediction. The result shows that the model has a good performance for dry interval periods. The performance of the model good represented by smaller number of MAE by 0.21 respectively.
Co-Authors Agnes Tuti Rumiati Andi Muhammad Ade Satriya Brodjol Sutijo S. U Denny Permatasari Edijatno Edijatno Entin Hidayah Irhamah - Nadjadji Anwar Risya Fadila Syarifah Diana Permai