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Supratman Agus
Program Studi Teknik Sipil Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia
Transportation

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PERBANDINGAN MODEL ANDREASSEN DAN MODEL ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK UNTUK PREDIKSI FATALITAS KORBAN KECELAKAAN LALULINTAS Supratman Agus
Jurnal Transportasi Vol. 12 No. 1 (2012)
Publisher : Forum Studi Transportasi antar Perguruan Tinggi (FSTPT)

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (246.504 KB) | DOI: 10.26593/jtrans.v12i1.468.%p

Abstract

In ASEAN, Indonesia has largest area and population, longest road infrastructure, and largest number of motor vehicles, but road victims’ fatality is low. This indicates under-reporting. Existing model of road victims’ fatality is Andreassen models which use population numbers and motor vehicles numbers asvariables to prediction numbers of fatality. This study aimed to obtaining the best predictive model of road victims’ fatality which suits Indonesia’s conditions. Three models were compared are Andreassen model, Artificial Neural Network with two variables (ANN2) and four variables (ANN4), with driving license holderand road length as two additional variables. Model validation was performed on three cities in West Java with different categories population densities. The results reveal that ANN4 is the best fatality prediction model. In addition, predictions of road victim numbers in Indonesia are not only influenced by populationand vehicles number, but also by driving license holder numbers and road length.Keywords: fatality, model comparison, Andreassen model, Artificial Neural Network model
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