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Haryo Kuncoro
Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta, Jakarta, Indonesia
Economics, Econometrics & Finance

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A feasibility study of establishing fiscal council in Indonesia Haryo Kuncoro
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 10 Issue 2, 2018
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss2.art3

Abstract

In this paper we address the quantitative measurement of credibility in fiscal policy in the case of Indonesia over the period 2001-2016. This preliminary paper focuses on the deviations of the actual budget balances from the projections about these balances in the preceding years. The objective is to extract from these data insights into the credibility of the government fiscal policies. We found that fiscal policy as conducted by government is not perceived as credible. The targets set forward by government are often not met and usually the divergence is on the negative side. Revenue and spending are overestimated, leading to a deficit bias and growing indebtedness of government. Those results suggest feasibility to establish the fiscal council with independent powers to conduct the credible fiscal policy in order to maintain fiscal sustainability in the long-term.
The potential growth impact of fiscal consolidations Haryo Kuncoro
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 13 Issue 2, 2021
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol13.iss2.art4

Abstract

Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the feasibility of fiscal consolidation implementation in the case of Indonesia. The main question to be investigated is whether fiscal consolidation will deteriorate economic growth or not.Methods - This research uses various probabilistic models to assess the successfulness of fiscal adjustments. Probit and logit models are used as a preliminary estimate. The robustness checks are conducted by binary extreme value and Tobit models.Findings - The results indicate that the magnitude of government revenue is less than that of government spending. They seem that increasing government revenue (taxes, for instance) is less harmful compared to reducing expenditures, which denies empirically what Keynesian economists approve of.Implication - The results highlight that Indonesia’s fiscal authority should immediately reform the economic, regulatory, and institutional environments in adopting fiscal austerity policies. The reforms are strongly required to realize fiscal health as well as to promote economic growth.Originality - This paper contributes the literature on fiscal policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research compares the actual output over the potential output, instead of the past actual output, to evaluate the successfulness of fiscal consolidations.
The role of foreign reserves in inflation dynamics Haryo Kuncoro
Economic Journal of Emerging Markets Volume 16 Issue 1, 2024
Publisher : Universitas Islam Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol16.iss1.art1

Abstract

Purpose – Central banks’ foreign reserve stocks in emerging markets have increased substantially in recent decades. Foreign reserves accumulation has been widely believed as a shock absorber to prevent financial crises. Meanwhile, accelerating foreign reserves might be contradictory to the monetary policy objectives. This research aims to investigate the impact of foreign reserves on the inflation dynamics.Method – We apply the inflation-expectation augmented Phillips curve on the monthly data over the period of 2005(7) to 2020(12) in the case of Indonesia. Findings – We show that stockpiling foreign exchange reserves indeed has an inflationary pressure impact. The central bank's intervention in the foreign exchange market is more significant in selling rather than purchasing foreign exchange. However, the non-monetary factors also play an important role in determining inflation. Implications – Considering channels through which foreign reserves might affect inflation, our findings suggest the monetary authority should be concerned with inflationary expectations in the short term as one of the major policy-driven goals to maintain price stability in the long run.Originality – This paper contributes to the literature on monetary policy in developing countries. Unlike other empirical studies, this research employs the inflation-expectation augmented Phillips curve and accommodates the issue of asymmetric effects of the change in foreign reserves.
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