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All Journal NUMERICAL (Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika) Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi
Dian C. Rini Novitasari
Universitas Islam Negeri Sunan Ampel Surabaya
Agriculture, Biological Sciences & Forestry Mathematics Other

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PERAMALAN PERGERAKAN INFLASI DI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Alvin Nuralif Ramadanti; Elok Indana Zulfa; Noviati Maharani Sunariadi; Dian C. Rini Novitasari
Jurnal Matematika Sains dan Teknologi Vol. 22 No. 2 (2021)
Publisher : LPPM Universitas Terbuka

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33830/jmst.v22i2.1346.2021

Abstract

The economic growth of a nation is strongly influenced by inflation. Inflation is the continuous soaring price of goods or services. This study aims to predict the movement of inflation that will occur in East Java from January 2021 to December 2021. This study uses 48 data from the East Java Province inflation rate data from January 2017 to December 2020 sourced from the official website of BPS East Java. Predictions using the triple exponential smoothing method with forecasting evaluation using MAPE. Based on the analysis results, the parameters used are ⍺ = 0,01, β = 0,09 dan γ = 0,30 which produces a MAPE value of 1.619%, which is classified as very good. The results show that the inflation forecasting from January 2021 to December 2021 is estimated at -0.13 to 0.48, with an average of 0.087. Thus, the movement of inflation in East Java from January 2021 to December 2021 is classified as low inflation, so it shows that prices and services are still stable.
Prediction of the Tuban Regency Open Unemployment Rate in 2022 with the Backpropagation Method Evi Septya Putri; Abdulloh Hamid; Dian C. Rini Novitasari
Numerical: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika Vol. 6 No. 1 (2022)
Publisher : Institut Agama Islam Ma'arif NU (IAIMNU) Metro Lampung

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.25217/numerical.v6i1.2150

Abstract

The Open Unemployment Rate is the number of unemployed from the total labor force in an area or region in the form of a percentage. In Tuban Regency, unemployment has experienced a very significant increase from 2019 to 2020. Therefore, it is necessary to make predictions in 2021 and 2022 to find out the description of the Open Unemployment Rate in that year so that actions can be taken by the government to deal with this. By using the Backpropagation method, this study obtained predictions that in 2021 it will be 4.58% of the total workforce in Tuban Regency in 2021 and in 2022 the open unemployment rate will be 4.7% of the total workforce in Tuban Regency in 2022, with network architecture 2-70-1-1, the learning rate used is 0.1 and the MAPE value is 8.363%. The test was stopped at the 276th epoch. At the time of testing between the output and the target there was a correlation (R) of 0.993 where the best result was 1.
Co-Authors Abdulloh Hamid Alvin Nuralif Ramadanti Elok Indana Zulfa Evi Septya Putri Noviati Maharani Sunariadi